Future land-use change scenarios for the Black Sea catchment

Mancosu, Emanuele; Gago-Silva, Ana; Barbosa, Ana; Bono, Andrea; Ivanov, Evgeny; Lehmann, Anthony; Fons, J.

doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2014.02.008

Cited by 35 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…Although care must be taken when using scenarios due to limitations on the explanatory power of the driving forces [28,31,34], as well as changes in government legislation and land management that impact land use change. However, scenarios of land use/land cover change offer the possibility to evaluate potential impacts and improve planning [2,5].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Scenarios of land use/land cover change offer the possibility to project current and alternative future changes and, thus, allowing the mitigation of potential impacts and improve planning [2,5]. They try to replicate the behaviour of past land use/land cover by considering not only the environmental suitability of the land to support specific land use/cover categories, but social and of mountainous territory than the Valais.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The land use/cover change field of research is equally concerned with modelling changes, as well as creating plausible scenarios, and has been broadly discussed and recognized in the context of global and regional change [1][2][3][4][5]. In general, different studies have demonstrated the importance of understanding and modelling the land use/cover change, to assess soil erosion and instability [6,7], to estimate carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation [8,9], to model water quality and quantity [10][11][12], to predict species habitat [13][14][15] , and on the intensity and size of wildfires [16].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Spatial Dynamic Modelling of Future Scenarios of Land Use Change in Vaud and Valais, Western Switzerland

Gago-Silva

Ray

Lehmann

2017

IJGI

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Abstract:We use Bayesian methods with a weights of evidence approach to model the probability of land use change over the Western part of Switzerland. This first model is followed by a cellular automata model for spatial allocation of land use classes. Our results extend and enhance current land use scenarios studies by applying Dinamica Environment for Geoprocessing Objects (Dinamica EG) to a study area comprising of the upper Rhone river basin in the Cantons of Vaud and Valais. In order to take into account the topography, we divide the study area into four regions, based on their altitude and administrative region. We show that the different regions are affected in differing ways by the same driving forces. We analyse possible outcomes in land use change in 2050 for three different scenarios: "business as usual", "liberalisation" and a "lowered agriculture production". The "business-as-usual" scenario results indicate a decrease in agriculture, mostly in extensive agriculture, with a share in the total area of 12. Gains in open land habitat with the increase of the share of extensive agriculture area under the "lowered agricultural production" scenario are expected to increase by 3.2% in 2050, while the share of intensive agriculture area is expected to decrease by 5.6%.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Spatial Dynamic Modelling of Future Scenarios of Land Use Change in Vaud and Valais, Western Switzerland

Gago-Silva

Ray

Lehmann

2017

IJGI

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“…The landuse scenarios were developed for cropland, grassland, forest, and urban areas for the BSC countries, while the input data were derived from the MODIS land cover datasets [22] for the years 2001 and 2008. A full description of the scenario developments and quantitative measures of changes in land cover classes is presented by Mancosu et al [28]. …”

Section: Landuse Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Water Resources of the Black Sea Catchment under Future Climate and Landuse Change Projections

Freund

Abbaspour

Lehmann

2017

Water

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Abstract:As water resources become further stressed due to increasing levels of societal demand, understanding the effect of climate and landuse change on various components of the water cycle is of strategic importance. In this study we used a previously developed hydrologic model of the Black Sea Catchment (BSC) to assess the impact of potential climate and landuse changes on the fresh water availability. The BSC model was built, calibrated, and validated against observed daily river discharge for the period of 1973-2006 using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) as the modeling tool. We employed the A2 and B2 scenarios of 2017-2050 generated by the Danish Regional Climate Model (HIRHAM), and four potential future landuse scenarios based on the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC)'s special report on emissions scenarios (SRES) storylines, to analyze the impact of climate change and landuse change on the water resources of the BSC. The detailed modeling and the ensemble of the scenarios showed that a substantial part of the catchment will likely experience a decrease in freshwater resources by 30 to 50%.

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“…Metronamica is a spatial decision support system based on cellular automata, which allows for the preparation of projections of potential future changes in land use in different scenarios [61,63]. Each scenario can be assessed based on indicators that are calculated from a raster format of the used data [60].…”

Section: Cellular Automata Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Use of a Decision Support System for Sustainable Urbanization and Thermal Comfort in Adaptation to Climate Change Actions—The Case of the Wrocław Larger Urban Zone (Poland)

Kazak

2018

Sustainability

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Abstract:The increasing level of antropopression has a negative impact on environmental resources and has reached the level of our planetary boundaries. One limitation is land use change caused by urbanization. Global policies prove the need to undertake action in order to develop more sustainable human settlements, which would be adapted better to potential future climate change effects. Among such changes are the increase of average temperatures and extreme events like heat waves. Those changes are more severe in urban areas due to land use development, and result in the urban heat island effect (UHI), which has a negative impact on the thermal comfort of citizens. The paper presents a decision support system that can be used for the assessment of areas to the potential exposure to the UHI effect. The system integrates scenario analysis, land use modelling in cellular automata (Metronamica), and an indicator-based assessment in a geographic information system (ArcGIS). The applicability of the model is illustrated through developing scenarios for the future land use allocation of the Wrocław Larger Urban Zone (Poland). The results of the calculations show which scenario is the least vulnerable to UHI effects. Moreover, for each scenario, cores of urban areas were identified, in which certain urban design patterns accounting for adaptation to climate change could be implemented. The study provides a guideline for local authorities on where to focus actions in order to create more sustainable urban structures and to better adapt to climate change and environmental extremes.

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Future land-use change scenarios for the Black Sea catchment

Cited by 35 publications

References 17 publications

Spatial Dynamic Modelling of Future Scenarios of Land Use Change in Vaud and Valais, Western Switzerland

Spatial Dynamic Modelling of Future Scenarios of Land Use Change in Vaud and Valais, Western Switzerland

Water Resources of the Black Sea Catchment under Future Climate and Landuse Change Projections

The Use of a Decision Support System for Sustainable Urbanization and Thermal Comfort in Adaptation to Climate Change Actions—The Case of the Wrocław Larger Urban Zone (Poland)

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