Future local climate unlike currently observed anywhere

Dahinden, Fabienne; Fischer, Erich M.; Knutti, Reto

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa75d7

Cited by 28 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…Many papers have presented variations on this theme (Brown & Katz, 1995;Hallegatte et al, 2007;Kalkstein & Greene, 1997;Pugh et al, 2016;Williams et al, 2007), each with different caveats: The most recent example from Dahinden et al (2017) found that up to 20% of today's local climates, when characterized based on seasonal cycles of average temperature and precipitation over land regions, would disappear following an additional 2.0°C rise in global temperatures. Primarily used as a communication tool (for example, http://bit.ly/2n1ubbF), this approach commonly considers what regions of the world might today exhibit climatic conditions comparable to the projections expected for a different location under a future warming scenario.…”

Section: 1029/2018gl078888mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Primarily used as a communication tool (for example, http://bit.ly/2n1ubbF), this approach commonly considers what regions of the world might today exhibit climatic conditions comparable to the projections expected for a different location under a future warming scenario. Many papers have presented variations on this theme (Brown & Katz, 1995;Hallegatte et al, 2007;Kalkstein & Greene, 1997;Pugh et al, 2016;Williams et al, 2007), each with different caveats: The most recent example from Dahinden et al (2017) found that up to 20% of today's local climates, when characterized based on seasonal cycles of average temperature and precipitation over land regions, would disappear following an additional 2.0°C rise in global temperatures.…”

Section: 1029/2018gl078888mentioning

confidence: 99%

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How Uneven Are Changes to Impact‐Relevant Climate Hazards in a 1.5 °C World and Beyond?

Harrington

Frame

King

et al. 2018

Geophysical Research Letters

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In the last decade, climate mitigation policy has galvanized around staying below specified thresholds of global mean temperature, with an understanding that exceeding these thresholds may result in dangerous interference of the climate system. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change texts have developed thresholds in which the aim is to limit warming to well below 2 °C of warming above preindustrial levels, with an additional aspirational target of 1.5 °C. However, denoting a specific threshold of global mean temperatures as a target for avoiding damaging climate impacts implicitly obscures potentially significant regional variations in the magnitude of these projected impacts. This study introduces a simple framework to quantify the magnitude of this heterogeneity in changing climate hazards at 1.5 °C of warming, using case studies of emergent increases in temperature and rainfall extremes. For example, we find that up to double the amount of global warming (3.0 °C) is needed before people in high‐income countries experience the same relative changes in extreme heat that low‐income nations should anticipate after only 1.5 °C of warming. By mapping how much warming is needed in one location to match the impacts of a fixed temperature threshold in another location, this “temperature of equivalence” index is a flexible and easy‐to‐understand communication tool, with the potential to inform where targeted support for adaptation projects should be prioritized in a warming world.

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Section: 1029/2018gl078888mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: 1029/2018gl078888mentioning

confidence: 99%

How Uneven Are Changes to Impact‐Relevant Climate Hazards in a 1.5 °C World and Beyond?

Harrington

Frame

King

et al. 2018

Geophysical Research Letters

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The county-level information on the presence of P. maydis in the four Corn Belt states (Bissonnette 2015;Wise et al 2016) was used to generate an analogue climate map utilizing the analogue tool. The analogue climate approach has been utilized for a number of studies mainly focused on climate change analysis (Hallegatte et al 2007;Burke et al 2009;Hayman et al 2010;Thornton et al 2011;Webb et al 2013;Leibing et al 2013;Berry et al 2014;Kellett et al 2015;Pugh et al 2016;Dahinden et al 2017;Flückiger et al 2017). The analogue tool used here was based on R code, which was developed by the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) and the University of Reading, UK, for climate change studies (Ramírez-Villegas et al 2011).…”

Section: Tar Spot Complex Disease Of Maizementioning

confidence: 99%

Threats of Tar Spot Complex disease of maize in the United States of America and its global consequences

Mottaleb

Loladze

Sonder

et al. 2018

Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

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The emergence and spread of new crop diseases threatens the global food security situation. Phyllachora maydis, one of the three fungal pathogens involved in Tar Spot Complex (TSC) of maize, a disease native to Latin American countries, was detected for the first time in the United States of America (USA) in 2015. Although TSC has been previously reported to cause up to 50% of yield losses in maize in Latin America, the impact of P. maydis alone on maize yield is not known yet. However, there is a possibility that Monographella maydis, the second most important pathogen involved in TSC, would be introduced to the USA and would become associated with P. maydis and both pathogens could form the devastating complex disease in the country. The first objective of this study was to identify the TSCvulnerable maize-producing regions across the USA by applying a climate homologue modeling procedure. The second objective was to quantify the potential economic impact of the disease on the maize industry in the USA. This study showed that even a 1% loss in maize production caused by the disease could potentially lead to a reduction in maize production by 1.5 million metric tons of grain worth US$231.6 million. Such production losses will affect not only the maize-related industries in the USA but also the food security in a number of low-income countries that are heavily dependent on US maize imports. This, in turn, may lead to increased poverty and starvation and, in some cases, to social unrest due to increased prices of maize-based staple foods. The study is intended to raise public awareness regarding potential TSC outbreaks and to develop strategies and action plans for such scenarios.

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“…Firstly, expert judgment is required to estimate the uncertainty of the projected impacts (Bos et al 2015;IPCC 2014a, b). Secondly, the applicability of the approach depends on the climate variable and the location; for example Dahinden et al (2017) show that it is often not possible to find analogues in temperature and precipitation simultaneously. The above discussion refers specifically to the estimation of the hazard component of risk.…”

Section: Projected Changes In Hazardmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Role of the Physical Sciences in Loss and Damage Decision-Making

López

Surminski

Serdeczny

2018

Loss and Damage From Climate Change

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This chapter reviews the implications of Loss and Damage (L&D) for decision-making with a special focus on the role of the physical sciences for decision support. From the point of view of climate science, the question regarding the estimation of losses and damages associated with climate change can be thought of in terms of two temporal scales: the present and the future. In both cases the aim is to establish the links between human-induced changes in climate and climate variability, the probability of occurrence of extreme meteorological events (e.g., rainfall), and the resulting hazard that causes losses and damages (e.g., flood). We review the approaches used to assess the hazard component of risk, with a special emphasis on identifying sources of uncertainty and the potential for providing robust information to support decision-making. We then discuss tools and approaches that have been developed in the context of Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) to deal with uncertainty from climate science in order to avoid a 'wait and see' mentality for decision-making. We argue that these can be applied to some parts of L&D decisionmaking, in the same way as suggested for CCA, since the challenges presented by the need to reduce and manage climate change losses and damages are not very different from the ones presented by the need to adapt to climate change and variability. However additional challenges for decision-makers, particularly in the context of the underlying science, are posed by the compensation and burden-sharing components of L&D for climate impacts that are beyond mitigation and adaptation's reach.

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Future local climate unlike currently observed anywhere

Cited by 28 publications

References 21 publications

How Uneven Are Changes to Impact‐Relevant Climate Hazards in a 1.5 °C World and Beyond?

How Uneven Are Changes to Impact‐Relevant Climate Hazards in a 1.5 °C World and Beyond?

Threats of Tar Spot Complex disease of maize in the United States of America and its global consequences

The Role of the Physical Sciences in Loss and Damage Decision-Making

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