Future methane emissions from animals

Anastasi, Christopher; Simpson, Victoria

doi:10.1029/92jd02816

Cited by 17 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…We compared our results with 15 previous estimates including FAOSTAT (FAO, 2021b; Tubiello et al, 2013), EDGAR v5 (Crippa et al, 2020), EPA (2012), Dangal et al (2017), Chang et al (2019), Caro, Davis, et al (2014), Herrero et al (2013), Wolf et al (2017), Chang et al (2021) Crutzen et al (1986), Hutchinson (1949), Ehhalt (1974), Seiler (1984), Mosier et al (1998), and Anastasi and Simpson (1993) (Figure 10, Table 1). Compared with FAOSTAT, Caro, Davis, et al (2014) and EPA, our study shows a higher growth trend in CH 4 emissions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A 130‐year global inventory of methane emissions from livestock: Trends, patterns, and drivers

Zhang

Tian

Shi

et al. 2022

Global Change Biology

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Livestock contributes approximately one-third of global anthropogenic methane (CH 4 ) emissions. Quantifying the spatial and temporal variations of these emissions is crucial for climate change mitigation. Although country-level information is reported regularly through national inventories and global databases, spatially explicit quantification of century-long dynamics of CH 4 emissions from livestock has been poorly investigated. Using the Tier 2 method adopted from the 2019 Refinement to 2006 IPCC guidelines, we estimated CH 4 emissions from global livestock at a spatial resolution of 0.083° (~9 km at the equator) during the period 1890-2019. We find that global CH 4 emissions from livestock increased from 31.8 [26.5-37.1] (mean [minimum−maximum of 95% confidence interval) Tg CH 4 yr −1 in 1890 to 131.7 [109.6-153.7] Tg CH 4 yr −1 in 2019, a fourfold increase in the past 130 years. The growth in global CH 4 emissions mostly occurred after 1950 and was mainly attributed to the cattle sector. Our estimate shows faster growth in livestock CH 4 emissions as compared to the previous Tier 1 estimates and is ~20% higher than the estimate from FAOSTAT for the year 2019. Regionally, South Asia, Brazil, North Africa, China, the United States, Western Europe, and Equatorial Africa shared the majority of the global emissions in the 2010s. South Asia, tropical Africa, and Brazil have dominated the growth in global CH 4 emissions from livestock in the recent three decades. Changes in livestock CH 4 emissions were primarily associated with changes in population and national income and were also affected by the policy, diet shifts, livestock productivity improvement, and international trade. The new geospatial information on the magnitude and trends of livestock CH 4 emissions identifies emission hotspots and spatial-temporal patterns, | 5143 ZHANG et Al.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A 130‐year global inventory of methane emissions from livestock: Trends, patterns, and drivers

Zhang

Tian

Shi

et al. 2022

Global Change Biology

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“…One idea is that a change in stratospheric circulation, due to an increase in stratospheric temperature by as much as 3.5 K [Labitzke, 1994] For scenarios B1 and B2, in both hemispheres the proposed decreases in heavy CH 4 sources fail to account for the changes in CH 4 growth rates given by (8) and (10). Several studies indicate that light CH 4 sources (e.g., rice paddies, animals, and landfills) might increase over the coming decades [Bingemet and Crutzen, 1987;Anastasi et al, 1992;Anastasi and Simpson, 1993;Neue, 1993]. In our model, these three sources combined account for about 41% of the total sources of CH 4.…”

Section: Climatic Effects Of Mt Pinatubo's Eruption Should Last For mentioning

confidence: 93%

Modeling atmospheric δ¹³CH₄ and the causes of recent changes in atmospheric CH₄ amounts

Gupta¹,

Tyler²,

Cicerone³

1996

J. Geophys. Res.

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Inclusion of kinetic isotope effects (KIEs) of methane (CH4) sinks (gaseous OH and C1, and soil microbes) has a significant effect on modeled distributions of 613C of atmospheric CH 4. For a given scenario of surface sources and corresponding 6•3C values of individual CH 4 sources, the KIE due to soil uptake enriched 613C by 1.18%o in the model's northern hemisphere (NH) (40øN) and 1.16%o in the southern hemisphere (SH) (40øS) under steady state conditions in January. The KIE due to CH 4 oxidation by stratospheric C1 radicals further enriched these 6•C values at the surface by 0.99%• and 1.03%•, respectively. In the vertical direction, during January at 50øN, inclusion of a KIE due to C1 enriched 6•C at 18 km by 0.95%• compared to the corresponding surface value, whereas the enrichment was only 0.31%• when this KIE was omitted. These results suggest that modeling of 6•3C distributions should include KIEs due to CH 4 oxidation by soil and stratospheric chlorine radicals. It is shown that possible oxidation of CH 4 in marine boundary layer by C1 radicals can significantly enrich 6•3C. However, if a recent theoretical value for the KIE of the C1 and CH 4 reaction is correct, then the impact of this reaction is less than the figures quoted above. In the model, monthly variations in OH concentration and interhemispheric exchange transport cannot reproduce the observed seasonal amplitude variation of 6•3C in either the NH or SH. It is argued that seasonal variations in individual CH 4 fluxes are primarily responsible for this discrepancy. We show that increasing C1 radical concentrations due to continued release of anthropogenic chlorocarbons enrich the 6•3C values. The effects of an increase in tropospheric OH concentration due to stratospheric ozone depletion and a cooling of the troposphere due to the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, with a lowering of water vapor concentration and reduction in isoprene emissions, on 6•C and surface CH 4 mixing ratios are investigated. Other model simulations with adjusted surface CH 4 fluxes have been performed to study the postulated explanations for recent changes in CH 4 surface mixing ratios and •3C values. A modified version of the Oslo two-dimensional global tropospheric photochemical model was used for all simulations. Introduction The importance of atmospheric methane (CH4) is well established [see Ehhalt, 1974; Cicerone and Oreroland, 1988], for example, its role as a radiative trace gas in global warming [Ramanathan et al., 1985; Dickinson and Cicerone, 1986] and its importance in tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry [Crutzen and Schmailzl, 1983; Thompson and Cicerone, 1986; Isaksen and Hov, 1987; Crutzen, 1987]. Measurements of atmospheric CH 4 in air trapped in ice cores show that during the last 150 years CH 4 surface concentration has increased by a factor of 2 [Etheridge e! al., 1992]. Continuous direct surface measurements since 1978 show a consistent upward trend in CH 4 concentration of about 1% per year at least through 1984 [Rasmussen and Khalil, 1981; Steele et al...

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“…The IPCC then re-evaluated EFs for various ruminants (most particularly cattle) using regional livestock population characterisations and productivity data to produce a series of EF Tier 1 default values 10 (IPCC 199610 (IPCC -updated 2006, with only minor EFs developed by CAS (mules, asses, pigs) retained by the IPCC for inventory assessment purposes. These EFs have subsequently been incorporated into a series of papers (see Anastasi and Simpson 1993;Johnson and Ward 1996;Mosier et al 1998;Scheehle et al 2002;Lassey 2008, for example) which estimate national, regional and/or global enteric fermentation budgets. What sets this paper apart from these others is that we do not just focus on the aggregate increase in enteric emissions over time.…”

Section: Enteric Fermentation and The Global Ruminant Methane Budgetmentioning

confidence: 99%

Enteric fermentation and ruminant eructation: the role (and control?) of methane in the climate change debate

Thorpe

2008

Climatic Change

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Anthropogenic processes are responsible for between 55% and 70% of the estimated 600 Tg of methane that is released annually into the atmosphere, with enteric fermentation a major contributor to emissions in a number of countries. This paper therefore reviews current levels of CH 4 discharges by both animal type and country, and shows how the growth or decline in national herds over the last 20 years has significantly altered the global composition of enteric emissions. As developing countries are now responsible for almost three-quarters of such emissions, this has important implications in terms of mitigation strategies-particularly as such countries are presently outside the remit of the Kyoto Protocol.

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Future methane emissions from animals

Cited by 17 publications

References 9 publications

A 130‐year global inventory of methane emissions from livestock: Trends, patterns, and drivers

A 130‐year global inventory of methane emissions from livestock: Trends, patterns, and drivers

Modeling atmospheric δ¹³CH₄ and the causes of recent changes in atmospheric CH₄ amounts

Enteric fermentation and ruminant eructation: the role (and control?) of methane in the climate change debate

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Future methane emissions from animals

Cited by 17 publications

References 9 publications

A 130‐year global inventory of methane emissions from livestock: Trends, patterns, and drivers

A 130‐year global inventory of methane emissions from livestock: Trends, patterns, and drivers

Modeling atmospheric δ13CH4 and the causes of recent changes in atmospheric CH4 amounts

Enteric fermentation and ruminant eructation: the role (and control?) of methane in the climate change debate

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Modeling atmospheric δ¹³CH₄ and the causes of recent changes in atmospheric CH₄ amounts