Future migrations from Tuvalu and Kiribati: exploring government, civil society and donor perceptions

Smith, Roy; McNamara, Karen E.

doi:10.1080/17565529.2014.900603

Cited by 26 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…However, emigration intentions may change following trigger events (like an extreme drought or a destructive cyclone)-see Noy (2016). Smith and McNamara (2015), while analysing the various factors that may determine emigration decisions, also suggest that migration from Tuvalu may become more common in several worst case climate scenarios. 26 Note that the asymptotic theory of spatial models for limited dependent variables has only been developing recently, so we are uncertain about the robustness of these results (e.g., Qu and Lee 2012).…”

Section: Olsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Household vulnerability on the frontline of climate change: the Pacific atoll nation of Tuvalu

Taupo

Cuffe

2018

Environ Econ Policy Stud

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This paper investigates the vulnerability of households to climatic disasters in the low-lying atoll nation of Tuvalu. Small Island Developing States, particularly the atoll nations, are the most vulnerable to climatic change, and in particular to sea-level rise and its associated risks. Using the most recent household surveys available, we construct poverty and hardship profiles for households on the different islands of Tuvalu, and combine these with geographic and topographic information to assess the exposure differentials among different groups using spatial econometric models. Besides the observation that poor households are more vulnerable to negative shocks because they lack the resources to respond, we also find that they are also more likely to reside in areas highly exposed to disasters (closer to the coasts and at lower elevation) and have less ability to migrate (between and within the islands).

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Section: Olsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Household vulnerability on the frontline of climate change: the Pacific atoll nation of Tuvalu

Taupo

Cuffe

2018

Environ Econ Policy Stud

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“…Attention-grabbing media representations of "drowning islands" as well as the vociferous stance of SIDS at international climate negotiations have lent them a distinct reputation as "guinea pigs" or "canaries in the coalmine" [2][3][4]. By the same token, this heightened level of attention testifies to prescient debates amongst scholars, deliberating the extent to which climate change-induced sea-level rise (SLR) will impair the livelihoods in Pacific atoll countries [5,6]; elicit environmentally induced migration movements [7][8][9][10][11][12]; and culminate in a large-scale loss of land -and perhaps even maritime entitlements [13][14][15].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

From sea-level rise to seabed grabbing: The political economy of climate change in Kiribati

Mallin

2018

Marine Policy

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This paper presents a critical political economy perspective on recent and ongoing developments in the Pacific atoll country of Kiribati, where the issue of rising sea levels has become an incrementally politicised concern. Semi-structured interviews (n=30) with decision-makers, policy advisors, scholars, and community elders were conducted in multiple sites to scrutinise the politics that frame the country's environmental predicament. Findings indicate that: (1) irrespective of considerable scientific uncertainties and data inconsistencies, previous governments have fervently abided by a 'sinking nation paradigm', unreasonably constraining political visions of the nation's future; (2) consequentially, 'adaptation' has become a metaphor for economic development conceptions, which are tied to mounting budgetary requirements; (3) climate aid is sought for adaptation initiatives irrespective of the needs and desires of island communities; (4) incentives to develop a blue-green economy have facilitated the emergence of highly problematic deep-sea minerals (DSM) initiatives, which this study regards as precursors to seabed grabbing. The paper, therefore, posits that marine policy makers in Kiribati -and other small-island developing states (SIDS) -need to be more vigilant to wider political economic agendas when considering options for ocean and coastal governance. Researchers and practitioners have an important role to play in this regard by privileging preferences and perceptions from coastal communities, to ensure well-informed policy decisions in times of ecological uncertainty.

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“…When interviewees allude to security implications, these are rendered a problem of human security rather than an issue of hard national or military security. This avoidance of unpopular notions of climate victims and refugees (see McNamara and Gibson 2009;Smith and McNamara 2015) might help secure the compliance of relevant parties and to, thereby, develop a regionally acceptable migration discourse.…”

Section: Interpreting the Three Discourses And The Role Of Developmenmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Described as among the most vulnerable regions on the planet (Nurse et al 2014), the Pacific Island Countries (PICs) are regularly portrayed, in news media and academic texts alike, as future locations of large-scale outmigration as seas rise and coastal settlements become uninhabitable. In this context, Smith and McNamara (2015) speak of a 'geopolitical characterisation' of Pacific nation states as inherently vulnerable. In other words, the Pacific holds a key position in the global imaginary around climate migration.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Migration as climate adaptation? Exploring discourses amongst development actors in the Pacific Island region

Remling

2020

Reg Environ Change

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This paper investigates the perspectives of a set of actors devoted to development in the Pacific on climate change, migration, and adaptation. While much of the debate over climate and migration is centred around the Small Island Developing States in the Pacific, little is known about how the debate is articulated at that regional level. Drawing on poststructuralist discourse theory and using semi-structured interviews with a set of development actors working in the region, the paper discerns three distinctive discourses on climate and migration. These are (1) a main discourse that promotes international labour migration as an adaptation response and two alternative discourses that challenge the main discourse's views, by suggesting (2) that migration is of marginal importance and engagement with socioeconomic factors that influence Pacific Islands' vulnerability is more pressing, and (3) that out-migration is undesirable but that communities may have to be relocated within their countries. The paper further explores why the discourse on labour migration may have emerged and why it is being perpetuated by actors that originate outside the Pacific region. The paper concludes by suggesting that significant differentials in economic and political resources exist between the main discourse and the alternative discourses. In addition to these empirical insights, the paper adds new findings to the growing literature on the politics of climate migration discourses. Unlike earlier work that identifies a shift from an alarmist to an optimist framing, it illustrates that both alarmist and optimistic imaginaries operate simultaneously in the discourse on labour migration.

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Future migrations from Tuvalu and Kiribati: exploring government, civil society and donor perceptions

Cited by 26 publications

References 27 publications

Household vulnerability on the frontline of climate change: the Pacific atoll nation of Tuvalu

Household vulnerability on the frontline of climate change: the Pacific atoll nation of Tuvalu

From sea-level rise to seabed grabbing: The political economy of climate change in Kiribati

Migration as climate adaptation? Exploring discourses amongst development actors in the Pacific Island region

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