Future of Container Shipping in Iranian Ports: Traffic and Connectivity Index Forecast

Abstract

Rapid development of maritime container transport within the last two decades encouraged port authorities to focus on a more precise traffic forecast in order to cope with software and hardware requirements just in time. It has been the case for Iranian Ports and Maritime Organization (PMO) to map marine traffic until 2025. This has been performed in this paper based on three distinct scenarios, namely, “simplified continuous growth,” “port best experience replication,” and “regional best practice” for four main container ports of the country based on seventeen years recorded trade data. Such results should be used as input to assess smoothness of port functions in future. Besides, Liner Shipping Connectivity Index (LSCI) has been discussed to draw Iran’s probable participation in the global container trade and shipping services within the next ten years.

Long-Term Traffic Forecast Using Neural Network and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average: Case of a Container Port

“…Because of the model's case-specific performance, each port was analyzed separately to diagnose the difference in monthly vessel traffic depending on the season. Panahi et al mapped the marine traffic of four main container ports based on 17 years of recorded trade data based on three different situations: ''simplified continuous development,'' ''offering replication for greatest experience,'' and ''regional best practices'' (29).…”

“…Correlations between deadweight tonnage (DWT), gross registered tonnage (GRT), or both, of specific vessel types and the main dimensions are commonly represented in standards and handbooks (29)(30)(31). Since the DWT of vessels was not stated in some cases, it is calculated as a function of gross tonnage (GT).…”

Has the COVID-19 Pandemic Affected Maritime Connectivity? An Estimation for China and the Polar Silk Road Countries

“…Previously, neither the SCI nor the PSCI has been employed to study transport connectivity in the PSR. Still, both indexes have been extensively used as reliable reflections of maritime connectivity in many global-scale studies [17,[51][52][53], as well as local estimations of maritime trade in Asia [54][55][56] and Europe [57][58][59].…”

Development of a model for the integrated management of the international delivery chains formation

“…Comparison of external cost, assessment of economic benefits when using different modes of transport in the multi-modal chain was performed in [9]. The prediction scenarios for participation of the Iranian ports in rendering global container trade and maritime services are analyzed in [10]. Designing the container system of transport networks of internal waterways transportation based on the analysis of ports, service frequency, and the type of vessels was explored in [11].…”