Future perspective of China's feed demand and supply during its fast transition period of food consumption

Dong, Wei; Wang, Xiaobing; Yang, Jun

doi:10.1016/s2095-3119(14)60992-8

Cited by 30 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 15 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The per capita consumption of cereals is projected to decline in China. However, the increase in demand for high quality diet, which consists of protein-rich and processed foods, can lead to increase in demand for feed such as corn [40,41], leading to a large food demand. At the same time, the loss of cultivated land because of rapid industrialization and urbanization [42] and the policy of land fallow give limited space for grain production increase that is driven by increasing planting area.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Food Security in China: A New Perspective Based on Production-Consumption Coordination

Zhang

Wang

et al. 2016

Sustainability

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract:The grain output of China increased continuously for 11 years from 2004 to 2014, effectively ensuring security of the country's food supply. At the same time, rapid advancement of urbanization and industrialization generated marked changes in the food consumption patterns of residents, and supply-demand structural problems, such as the variety, quality and region of grains, became increasingly prominent. Currently, national food security goes beyond the guarantee of total grain demand. Therefore, both the production and consumption systems must be evaluated to produce a scientific measurement of food security. From the perspective of food production-consumption coordination and matching, this article sets up a multidimensional coupling assessment index system and model, and carries out assessment of the food security level and the warning status of China between 1995 and 2012. Results show that the level of quantity coordination remained high and the level of variety coordination fluctuated before 2006 and continued decreasing afterwards. The regional coordination level largely continued to decline during the whole research period. The level of coordination of Chinese food production-consumption was high overall. The warning situation existed only for four years, but it started to decrease continuously since 2007 because of aggravated structural and regional disharmony. The state of coordination at the early stage primarily reflected variation of food production, but that of the later stage greatly reflected the problems caused by food consumption. In the future, food security of China can be ensured overall, but regional and variety coordination problems may worsen further, which may exert a potentially negative influence on agricultural trade, industrial security and market stability, thereby leading to decrease in food security at the regional and household levels. In the future, this problem can be addressed by ensuring the self-sufficiency of core varieties of grains, building interest coordination mechanisms in the production and sale regions, forming a modern food and nutrition development pattern, and making additional efforts to save grains.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Food Security in China: A New Perspective Based on Production-Consumption Coordination

Zhang

Wang

et al. 2016

Sustainability

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…However, the growth rate has been declining from 10.4% to 7.3% since 2010. This slowing down in the growth is expected in the near future, not only for the income, but also for the urbanization rate [3,6]. Thus, we assumed that the average annual growth rate of per-capita real income will be 7.0% in 2018-2020, 6.5% in 2021-2025, and 6.0% in 2026-2030, while the urbanization rate will increase by 1.1% annually in 2018-2020, 0.9% in 2021-2025, and 0.7% in 2026-2030.…”

Section: Future Consumption Predictingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The In the near future, with the food grain consumption gradually stabilized, the harvest area of rice and wheat is likely to remain at 31.0 and 25.4 Mha, respectively. With the increasing feed demand, especially protein feed [3], the soybean revitalization plan is likely to be maintained. As a result, the harvest area of soybean is likely to continue to expand at the current rate of 3%.…”

Section: Implications On the Grain Securitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Combined with the constant population growth, the total consumption of main livestock and fishery products all increased more than five times [2]. As maize and soybean meals are the main sources of feed [3,4], the rapid increase in the consumption of livestock and fishery products has led to a significant increase (242.5%) in the feed grain consumption [2]. Taking into account food consumption as well as other consumption (processing, seed, loss, and waste) of grain, the total grain consumption increased greatly by 129.3% [2].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Future Grain Consumption Trends and Implications on Grain Security in China

Yuan-yuan

2019

Sustainability

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Associated with population and income growth, grain consumption in China is expected to increase, and thus has inevitably influenced the food security. Using statistical data of the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO) from 1978 to 2017, this study adopting the vector auto-regression (VAR) model and implied demand approach, projected the future consumption of major grains (rice, wheat, maize, and soybean) for food, feed, and other uses in China during 2018–2030. On this basis, it further discussed their implications on grain security. The results showed that during 2018–2030, the Chinese dietary structure would continue to shift from food grain to animal foods. As a result, the grain’s food consumption will decrease slightly (1.5%), while the feed consumption will increase significantly (31.4%), contributing 71.4% to the total increase of grain consumption. By 2030, the total grain consumption will increase by 20.2% to 846.2 million tons, of which 50.2% will be consumed for feeding animals. In the total consumption, maize will be the largest consumed grain variety, accounting for 39.2%. The security of rice and wheat would be optimistic in the future, while the security of maize and soybeans is likely to decline, and thus needs to be given high priority. These findings have great policy implications for improving the grain security, suggesting that in addition to promote the expansion of maize and soybean growing area by adjusting the cropping structure of the arable land, great efforts should be paid to improve the yield of both crops. In addition, residents should be guided to adjust the dietary structure, and also, it is important to improve the animal feeding efficiency.

show abstract

“…Natural restrictions such as the degradation and decrease in arable land area, as well as water shortage, indicate that large‐scale imports of corn may start in the near future. The expected need for feed crops (corn and soybean) caused some scholars to state that “feed security” rather than “food security” is the main challenge for China’s food system (Dong, Wang, & Yang, ).…”

Section: Change In Volume and Composition Of Aggregate Demand In Chinamentioning

confidence: 99%

Transformation of China’s Development Model under Xi Jinping and its Implications for Russian Exports

Макаров¹,

Stepanov²,

Kashin³

2018

Asian Politics and Policy

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The article focuses on the main factors underlying the structural transformation of China’s economic model under Xi Jinping and its implications for Sino‐Russian economic cooperation and Russian merchandise exports. Russian exports to China are analyzed in the context of major changes in the volume and structure of China's aggregate demand. The results show that the rebalancing of the Chinese economy would bring some risks to Russia in the short and medium terms through putting downward pressure on its exports of natural resources (except for natural gas). At the same time, it would open new opportunities for industries producing resource‐intensive consumer goods and, therefore, gives Russia an opportunity for diversification of its economy in the longer term. In order to derive benefits from China’s transformation, Russia should shift the focus of its export policy from negotiating politically driven large projects toward more intensive promotion of consumer goods exports.

show abstract

Future perspective of China's feed demand and supply during its fast transition period of food consumption

Cited by 30 publications

References 15 publications

Assessment of Food Security in China: A New Perspective Based on Production-Consumption Coordination

Assessment of Food Security in China: A New Perspective Based on Production-Consumption Coordination

Future Grain Consumption Trends and Implications on Grain Security in China

Transformation of China’s Development Model under Xi Jinping and its Implications for Russian Exports

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About