Future Petroleum Geopolitics: Consequences of Climate Policy and Unconventional Oil and Gas

Abstract

Advances in unconventional oil and gas production and the possible adoption of a more effective international climate policy may impact on supply–demand balances in the petroleum sector, causing shifts in financial flows and capital accumulation. Such changes may in turn lead to shifts in the power balance between oil and gas exporting and importing countries. Because the relationship between exporting and importing countries in the petroleum sector is asymmetric, with a few exporting countries benefiting from the combined flows of revenue from many importing countries, exporting countries stand to lose more from a change in the status quo. The following interstate relationships may be particularly sensitive: the United States and the Gulf countries, Russia and the EU member states. Unconventional oil and gas may also play a role in the emerging superpower competition between China and the United States. The geopolitical changes one expects from unconventional oil and gas and climate policy depends on how one understands the current geopolitical situation in various parts of the world, and how strong the current geopolitical competition is seen to be.

Shipborne measurements of total OH reactivity around the Arabian Peninsula and its role in ozone chemistry

“…Most predictions assume that oil and natural gas production will increase in the Middle East during the coming decades (Balat, 2006;Khatib, 2014;Holz et al, 2015;Overland, 2015). Similarly, ship emissions around the Arabian Peninsula have been projected to grow on the short term due to intensifying traffic (Eyring et al, 2007), although new emission regulations 15 set by the International Maritime Organization (IMO, 2019), effective from 2020, might lead to a long-term decrease.…”

Introduction: can Russia and its oil companies handle change?

“…Although it is less dramatic than a sudden change, its consequences can be as great, and the moment of realization of what is happening can be sudden. Notable examples of gradual change in the petroleum sector include the expansion of offshore oil and gas extraction in the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries during the 1970s (Correljé 2018; Overland 2018; Wright and Boué 2018), declining production from the Soviet legacy oilfields in Western Siberia (Gustafson 2012), the shift in oil demand growth from the West to East Asia (Overland 2015), the rise of shale oil (Boersma and Johnson 2012), the increasing interconnectedness of regional gas markets due to the expansion of liquefied natural gas (LNG) (Wright 2017) and the incipient electrification of transport (Sovacool 2017).…”

EU Climate and Energy Policy: New Challenges for Old Energy Suppliers

“…Sources: Sweijs et al (2014, p. 67), Trademap (2017) As noted, oil suppliers may be somewhat less vulnerable to changes in EU demand, so Saudi Arabia may be better positioned in this regard. However, the Saudis will be equally vulnerable if new technologies are developed and/or other parts of the world fulfil the Paris Agreement (O'Sullivan et al, 2017;Overland, 2015).…”