Future precipitation increase from very high resolution ensemble downscaling of extreme atmospheric river storms in California

Huang, Xingying; Swain, Daniel L.; Hall, Alex

doi:10.1126/sciadv.aba1323

Cited by 96 publications

(95 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…Our future projections of WAFR provide clear evidence that increases in high-magnitude-flows are highly likely under climate change in California ( Fig. 1 ), as supported by previous studies reporting substantial and robust increases in projected extreme precipitation ( 23 , 31 ) and streamflow ( 16 , 19 , 20 ). Earlier snowmelt and larger increases in rain-on-snow events also contribute to more extreme streamflow ( 32 ), implying higher WAFR under climate change.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 84%

“…In California, there is high confidence that projected mountain system recharge will decline in a warming climate due to the loss of the winter snowpack ( 49 ) and shifts from snow to rain ( 32 ), which increases the likelihood of surface runoff rather than percolation. Diffuse and focused recharge may decrease in Southern California due to combined effects of decreasing precipitation and increasing temperature, but their changing directions are not clear in Northern California, given that extreme precipitation will largely increase in future climates ( 9 , 21 , 23 , 31 ). It is also challenging to quantify projected changes in irrigation recharge ( 48 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate-informed hydrologic modeling and policy typology to guide managed aquifer recharge

Bryant

Moran

et al. 2021

Sci. Adv.

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Harvesting floodwaters to recharge depleted groundwater aquifers can simultaneously reduce flood and drought risks and enhance groundwater sustainability. However, deployment of this multibeneficial adaptation option is fundamentally constrained by how much water is available for recharge (WAFR) at present and under future climate change. Here, we develop a climate-informed and policy-relevant framework to quantify WAFR, its uncertainty, and associated policy actions. Despite robust and widespread increases in future projected WAFR in our case study of California (for 56/80% of subbasins in 2070–2099 under RCP4.5/RCP8.5), strong nonlinear interactions between diversion infrastructure and policy uncertainties constrain how much WAFR can be captured. To tap future elevated recharge potential through infrastructure expansion under deep uncertainties, we outline a novel robustness-based policy typology to identify priority areas of investment needs. Our WAFR analysis can inform effective investment decisions to adapt to future climate-fueled drought and flood risk over depleted aquifers, in California and beyond.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 84%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate-informed hydrologic modeling and policy typology to guide managed aquifer recharge

Bryant

Moran

et al. 2021

Sci. Adv.

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“…Compared to precipitation, surface wind impacts have received relatively little attention in the AR literature. Strong AR surface winds can damage trees and infrastructure, resulting in economic damages (Huang, Swain, & Hall, 2020; Waliser & Guan, 2017). In their global evaluation, Waliser and Guan (2017) showed that ARs are associated with wind extremes in many regions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Moisture‐ Versus Wind‐Dominated Flavors of Atmospheric Rivers

Gonzales

Swain

Barnes

et al. 2020

Geophysical Research Letters

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Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are essential features of the global water cycle. Although AR definitions are commonly based on integrated vapor transport (IVT), ARs of a given IVT can induce a wide range of surface precipitation and wind impacts. We develop an AR "flavor" metric that partitions AR IVT into moisture-dominant and wind-dominant components. We use this metric to create a climatological catalog of "wet" and "windy" ARs along the U.S. West Coast from 1980 to 2016. Windy ARs are generally associated with stronger surface winds than are wet ARs, with the largest differences at low IVT. Windy ARs are also associated with greater daily precipitation totals than are wet ARs, with the difference widening at higher IVT, notably over mountainous regions. Pacific Northwest ARs have become increasingly moisture dominated over 1980-2016, which has important implications for western U.S. water availability and flood risk. Plain Language Summary Atmospheric rivers transport large amounts of water vapor and are often associated with heavy precipitation and strong winds. Just as terrestrial rivers have different types, we show that the water vapor transport in atmospheric rivers can have distinct "flavors" and may be dominated by either high levels of moisture or strong winds. We find that atmospheric rivers of differing flavors produce different precipitation amounts and wind speeds. We also find that Pacific Northwest atmospheric rivers have become increasingly moisture dominated over the past four decades. Compared to precipitation, surface wind impacts have received relatively little attention in the AR literature. Strong AR surface winds can damage trees and infrastructure, resulting in economic damages (Huang, ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

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“…Although projected globally averaged increases in precipitation extremes are quite robust, regional variations are typically substantial. Landfalling precipitation varies strongly due to both topographic influences and mesoscale atmospheric dynamical processes (Huang, Swain, Walton, et al, 2020; Leung et al, 2013; Pontoppidan et al, 2017; Rotunno & Houze, 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Warming and Intensification of Precipitation Extremes: A “Double Whammy” Leading to Increasing Flood Risk in California

Huang

Stevenson

Hall

2020

Geophysical Research Letters

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This study focuses on quantifying future anthropogenic changes in surface runoff associated with extreme precipitation in California's Sierra Nevada. The method involves driving a land surface model with output from a high resolution regional atmospheric simulation of the most extreme atmospheric rivers (ARs). AR events were selected from an ensemble of global climate model simulations of historical and late 21st century climate under the “high‐emission” RCP8.5 scenario. Average precipitation during the future ARs increases by ~25% but a much lower proportion falls as snow. The resulting future runoff increase is dramatic—nearly 50%, reflecting both the precipitation increase and simultaneous conversion of snow to rain. The “double whammy” impact on runoff is largest in the 2,000–2,500 m elevation band, where the snowfall loss and precipitation increase are both especially large. This huge increase in runoff during the most extreme AR events could present major flood control challenges for the region.

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Future precipitation increase from very high resolution ensemble downscaling of extreme atmospheric river storms in California

Cited by 96 publications

References 59 publications

Climate-informed hydrologic modeling and policy typology to guide managed aquifer recharge

Climate-informed hydrologic modeling and policy typology to guide managed aquifer recharge

Moisture‐ Versus Wind‐Dominated Flavors of Atmospheric Rivers

Future Warming and Intensification of Precipitation Extremes: A “Double Whammy” Leading to Increasing Flood Risk in California

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