Future projection of flood inundation considering land-use changes and land subsidence in Jakarta, Indonesia

Moe, Idham Riyando; Kure, Shuichi; Januriyadi, Nurul Fajar; Udo, Keiko; Kazama, So; Koshimura, Shunichi

doi:10.3178/hrl.11.99

Cited by 42 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…For the single driver, the land-use change slightly increases the future flood risk compared with land subsidence and climate change. The results correspond to Moe et al (2017) who found that land-use change has a larger increase in the flood inundation areas compared with land subsidence. Conversely, Budiyono et al (2016) found that land subsidence increased the Jakarta flood risks more than land-use and climate change.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

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Evaluation of future flood risk in Asian megacities: a case study of Jakarta

Januriyadi

Kazama

Moe³

et al. 2018

Hydrological Research Letters

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The purpose of this research is to assess the future flood risk in rapidly urbanizing cities under climate change. A flood inundation model and a flood damage costs model were employed to project the future flood risk. We employed the combinations of eight global climate models (GCMs) and three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for precipitation to represent the climate change. Land-use change and land subsidence information were employed to represent the urban development effects. The expected annual damage costs (EADC) were also calculated to explain the severity of the flood risk. In addition, a global approach was used to estimate the asset values by comparing the common parameters (e.g. gross domestic production (GDP) or population). As a result, the combination of climate change and urban development amplified the mean future flood risk by 322% to 402% in 2050, with a 95% confidence interval. The results also show a large uncertainty of the future flood risk due to the future scenarios. These findings will assist policymakers in determining the investment for future flood prevention and mitigation. KEYWORDS damage cost; flood inundation model; land-use change; land subsidence; climate change

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

“…This study used a flood inundation model of Jakarta that was developed by Moe et al (2016aMoe et al ( , 2016bMoe et al ( , 2017. The model was employed to simulate the flood under some scenarios: land-use change, land subsidence and climate change.…”

Section: Flood Inundation Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of future flood risk in Asian megacities: a case study of Jakarta

Januriyadi

Kazama

Moe³

et al. 2018

Hydrological Research Letters

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“…Pushed by the critical condition in Jakarta i.e. traffic-congestion, land-subsidence, floods, pollution and the population density, President Joko Widodo, after winning his second term in 2019, arrange a massive manoeuvre to move the capital city to a new city called Nusantara in Borneo, East Kalimantan [1], [2]. Although it prepared to be a green, high-tech, and sustainable city [3], a typical city still makes 200 to 1000 times as large as their size to become ecological footprints somewhere distant from the city for resources and waste absorber [4]- [6].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessement of Morphometric Characteristics of Riko Manggar Sub-Catchments to Identify the Soil Erosion Risk of Nusantara New Capital City, East Kalimantan, Indonesia

Wahid,

Willsond,

Permana

et al. 2024

IOP Conf. Ser.: Earth Environ. Sci.

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Motivated by the critical condition in Jakarta, a new capital city called Nusantara in East Kalimatan has been prepared to answer this problem. Although it is prepared to be a sustainable green city, no city cannot evade from the ecological footprints. These activity could trigger a massive deforestation and forest degradation and also become a direct implication in soil erosion. Identification of area at risk of erosion and prioritizing it is necessary in the development and management progress of the city. Riko Manggar’s sub-watershed, where Nusantara is planned to be build, has 5 sub-catchments. Fortunately, Nusantara 0 km point has already placed in the lowest risk erosion area. Furthermore, it will be more convenient to expand the development to the west and east direction. Moreover, there is needed to make an erosion mitigation management before developing the upstream and downstream area.

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“…Published by Francis Academic Press, UK -9-change, and the research content related to ecosystem service value has become increasingly mature. Most of the relevant researchers at home and abroad focus on the process of land use change for many year [6][7] , the process of land use change at different sub-scales [8][9] , driving force analysis [10][11][12] , ecological effects [13][14] , and future land use pattern simulation [14][15] . In terms of exploring the impact of land use change on ESV, foreign scholars mainly focus on the spatial and temporal pattern of ESV [16][17] , simulation prediction [18] , impact factors [19] , and the correlation between ESV and land use carbon emissions [20] .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The spatial and temporal evolution of land use change and ecosystem service value in Dongting Lake Ecological Economic Zone from 2000 to 2020

2024

AJEE

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As a national development area, Dongting Lake is an important strategic support for the rise of the central region. In the past two decades, the water surface rate, river network density and the ratio of main stream area to length in Dongting Lake Basin have shown a decreasing trend, and the stability of water network structure has fluctuated significantly.The landscape pattern and land use pattern have changed greatly after the area has experienced " reclaiming land from lakes " and " returning farmland to lakes, " and the ecological vulnerability is very prominent.The research on the spatial-temporal coupling relationship between land use change and ecosystem service value in Dongting Lake Ecological Economic Zone is of great significance to regional ecosystem protection, land use assessment and planning adjustment.Based on the results of land classification and two-dimensional matrix, this paper summarizes the land use change of Dongting Lake Basin in 20 years with 5 years as the time interval, and uses Arc Map10.2 to tabulate the result area to obtain the ESV value under land use change in 2000,2005,2010,2015 and 2020. The influence of land use change on ESV was obtained by spatial autocorrelation analysis.The results show that : With the rapid development of society and the intensification of human activities, the area of construction land in Dongting Lake Ecological Economic Zone is increasing, the area of cultivated land is increasing, the area of forest land and water area is decreasing, which has a certain impact on the local ecology. Therefore the change rate of land use type of cultivated land and forest land is slowing down. Supply service and support service are the two most important ecological service functions in Dongting Lake Ecological Economic Zone. The total amount of ESV in the Dongting Lake Ecological Economic Zone is spatially aggregated. Forest land, cultivated land and water area are important factors affecting the total amount of ESV in the study area. ESV showed a downward trend in 20 years, and the conversion of forest land to cultivated land was an important reason for the decline of total ESV.

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Future projection of flood inundation considering land-use changes and land subsidence in Jakarta, Indonesia

Cited by 42 publications

References 13 publications

Evaluation of future flood risk in Asian megacities: a case study of Jakarta

Evaluation of future flood risk in Asian megacities: a case study of Jakarta

Assessement of Morphometric Characteristics of Riko Manggar Sub-Catchments to Identify the Soil Erosion Risk of Nusantara New Capital City, East Kalimantan, Indonesia

The spatial and temporal evolution of land use change and ecosystem service value in Dongting Lake Ecological Economic Zone from 2000 to 2020

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