Future projections of synoptic weather types over the Arabian Peninsula during the twenty-first century using an ensemble of CMIP5 models

Kenawy, Ahmed El; McCabe, Matthew F.

doi:10.1007/s00704-016-1874-y

Cited by 14 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…Bador et al 91 , 92 (2018, 2020) and Pfahl et al 93 presented a widespread intensification of total and extreme precipitation in the mid-to-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere that has been influenced by the thermodynamic response of the increasing surface temperatures. The contribution of the precipitation extremes supports the projected increase in the annual precipitation total for the study region 94 – 98 .…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 67%

Future changes in the precipitation regime over the Arabian Peninsula with special emphasis on UAE: insights from NEX-GDDP CMIP6 model simulations

Rao,

Al Mandous,

Al Ebri

et al. 2024

Sci Rep

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Global warming can profoundly influence the mean climate over the Arabian Peninsula, which may significantly influence both natural and human systems. The present study aims to investigate the changes in the precipitation regime in response to climate change over the Arabian Peninsula, with special emphasis on the United Arab Emirates (UAE). This work is performed using a sub-set of high-resolution NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) data derived from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Global Climate Models under three different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). The changes are analyzed in three phases such as 2021–2050 (near future), 2051–2080 (mid future) and 2080–2100 (far future), with the period of 1985–2014 as the baseline. This study represents the first attempt to utilize data from NEX-GDDP models to project the regional patterns of precipitation regime across the Arabian Peninsula. Results suggest that the annual precipitation is expected to increase over most of the UAE by up to 30%, particularly intense from the mid-future onwards in all scenarios. Specifically, the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation extremes such as intensity, 1-day highest precipitation, and precipitation exceeding 10 mm days are increasing; in contrast, the consecutive dry days may decrease towards the end of the century. The results show that the changes in extreme precipitation under a warming scenario relative to the historical period indicate progressive wetting across UAE, accompanied by increased heavy precipitation events and reduced dry spell events, particularly under the high emission scenarios. A high-resolution dataset is essential for a better understanding of changes in precipitation patterns, especially in regions where more detailed information is needed on a local scale to achieve water, food security, and environmental sustainability to formulate effective adaptation strategies for mitigating the potential risks and consequences associated with variations in wet and dry conditions.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 67%

Future changes in the precipitation regime over the Arabian Peninsula with special emphasis on UAE: insights from NEX-GDDP CMIP6 model simulations

Rao,

Al Mandous,

Al Ebri

et al. 2024

Sci Rep

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“…Southwest Asia is expected to experience the highest rate of population growth among major areas in the coming decades (Roudi‐Fahimi and Kent, ), and this might lead to a decrease in water availability by almost 40% by 2050 (Terink et al, ). Moreover, many studies revealed that climate change will significantly affect temperature and precipitation patterns in Southwest Asia (e.g., Black, ; Evans, ; Lelieveld et al, ; Terink et al, ; Hijioka et al, ; Almazroui et al, ; El Kenawy and McCabe, ). For example, Evans () has studied future temperature and precipitation conditions over the Middle East, using an ensemble of 18 GCMs, and indicated that the temperature would increase from 1.4 to 4°C by the end of this century under the A2 emissions scenario.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected changes in modified Thornthwaite climate zones over Southwest Asia using a CMIP5 multi‐model ensemble

Rahimi

Khalili

Butterbach‐Bahl

2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Climate change is known as one of the key challenges of the 21st century for sustainable agricultural development over Southwest Asia. However, not much is known about the way that climate changes might affect precipitation, temperature, and climate zones as their consequence over Southwest Asia. Here we have analysed probable changes in modified Thornthwaite climate zones by using monthly temperature and precipitation data from 320 meteorological stations during the historical period of 1971–2015, as well as the future projections of 17 GCMs (General Circulation Models) outputs under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in two future periods, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100. The CMIP5 climate projections were bias corrected using the correction factors derived in the historical period and applied to simulate future climatic conditions over Southwest Asia. Results derived from multi model ensemble projections of precipitation and temperature indicated that the regional mean annual temperature by the future period of 2071–2100 is expected to increase by 2.4 and 3.8°C, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Also, except for the southern and eastern parts of the Arabian Peninsula, by 2071–2100, the mean annual precipitation would significantly decrease by on average 6.2 and 7.5%, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Computing climate types based on averages from three climatic periods (1971–2015, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100) showed that Southwest Asia tends to become warmer and dryer. For example, by the end of the 21st century, the percentage of the area occupied by the torrid‐arid climate type (which already covers 13.8% of the total area) would be 29.3 and 36.4% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. These changes are important because they would definitely have profound ecological, hydrologic, and social consequences and may affect the basic components of sustainable agricultural systems like crop and livestock productions.

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“…Pérez et al (2014) showed the different performance for reproducing synoptic patterns in a larger set of GCMs as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3, Meehl et al 2007) and phase 5 (CMIP5, Taylor et al 2012), respectively. El Kenawy and McCabe (2016) assessed the capability of a set of CMIP5 models to reproduce synoptic conditions over the Arabian Peninsula, and they suggested that models with higher spatial resolution tend to perform better than those models with coarser resolution. In this context, several authors suggest that the model performance for reproducing circulation types might dependent on the study region as well as the selected variable, and they show that some models give more realistic results, but there is no single one GCM better than others (Belleflamme et al 2013;Casado and Pastor 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of an extended version of the Jenkinson–Collison classification on CMIP5 models over Europe

2017

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the warmer seasons over Southeast and Southwest Europe, respectively. Our results indicate that in winter the Westerly type has significant impacts on positive anomalies of maximum and minimum temperature over most of Europe. Except in winter, the warmer temperatures are linked to Easterlies, Anticyclonic and Low Flow conditions, especially over the Mediterranean area. Furthermore, we show that changes in the frequency of weather types represent a minor contribution of the total change of European temperatures, which would be mainly driven by changes in the temperature anomalies associated with the weather types themselves.

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Future projections of synoptic weather types over the Arabian Peninsula during the twenty-first century using an ensemble of CMIP5 models

Cited by 14 publications

References 41 publications

Future changes in the precipitation regime over the Arabian Peninsula with special emphasis on UAE: insights from NEX-GDDP CMIP6 model simulations

Future changes in the precipitation regime over the Arabian Peninsula with special emphasis on UAE: insights from NEX-GDDP CMIP6 model simulations

Projected changes in modified Thornthwaite climate zones over Southwest Asia using a CMIP5 multi‐model ensemble

Assessment of an extended version of the Jenkinson–Collison classification on CMIP5 models over Europe

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