Future Responses of the Burdur Lake to Climate Change and Uncontrolled Exploitation

Abstract

The changes that have occurred over time in Burdur Lake, which is located in a large area called the lakes region in Turkey, have received extensive attention due to global warming. In this study, we have revealed the changes in the surface area and volume of Burdur Lake by using satellite images. Dams and ponds built on the springs feeding the lake, combined with climate change, have caused dramatic changes in the lake area. Temperature, precipitation, and city (center) population data that can be an indicator of these changes are provided and their relations with the changes in the lake are explained by expressing them over the years. By using the pixel values of the satellite images of the past years, time series analysis was performed for both the surface area and the volume values. The Arima model was used for time series analysis. Results of the time series analysis conducted for the Burdur lake predicted that the lake volume will decrease to 0 in the 2070s. On the other hand, as a result of the time series analysis for the surface area, it was seen that the existing areas decreased dramatically in 2100. It is thought that these decreases in the lake are caused by the unconscious use of water resources feeding the lake for agricultural irrigation and climate change.