Future risk of flooding: an analysis of changes in potential loss of life in South Holland (The Netherlands)

Maaskant, B.; Jonkman, Sebastiaan N.; Bouwer, Laurens M.

doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2008.11.004

Cited by 59 publications

(41 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…The potential economic damage increases by 2050 with 22% through new urban development, augmented with 74% through other economic growth in scenario Transatlantic Markets, and by, respectively, 45% plus 89% in scenario Global Economy. These figures for the whole country are supported by local and regional analyses with comparable results (Maaskant et al 2009;Botzen et al 2010;Bouwer et al 2010). They mean that the flood risk could increase with a factor 2.0 to 2.3 as a consequence of demographic and economic growth alone.…”

Section: Development Of Flood Risksupporting

confidence: 70%

Assessment of the Netherlands’ Flood Risk Management Policy Under Global Change

Klijn

Bruijn

Knoop

et al. 2011

AMBIO

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Climate change and sea level rise urge lowlying countries to draft adaption policies. In this context, we assessed whether, to what extent and when the Netherlands' current flood risk management policy may require a revision. By applying scenarios on climate change and socio-economic development and performing flood simulations, we established the past and future changes in flood probabilities, exposure and consequences until about 2050. We also questioned whether the present policy may be extended much longer, applying the concept of 'policy tipping points'. Climate change was found to cause a significant increase of flood risk, but less than economic development does. We also established that the current flood risk management policy in the Netherlands can be continued for centuries when the sea level rise rate does not exceed 1.5 m per century. However, we also conclude that the present policy may not be the most attractive strategy, as it has some obvious flaws.

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Section: Development Of Flood Risksupporting

confidence: 70%

Assessment of the Netherlands’ Flood Risk Management Policy Under Global Change

Klijn

Bruijn

Knoop

et al. 2011

AMBIO

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“…With regard to future changes in flood hazard exposure, this study did not resort to regionalized land-use models, as used in comparable studies (cf. Bouwer et al 2010;Maaskant et al 2009;de Moel et al 2011), but applied a detailed plot-level assessment, thus addressing the need to ''take into account the exact location of landuse change in flood-prone areas'' (Bouwer et al 2010). By applying the same climate change allowance in all case studies we were able to identify two significant contextual conditions, which influence the sensitivity of future flood risk to climate change-related increases in peak discharge.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flood risk, climate change and settlement development: a micro-scale assessment of Austrian municipalities

et al. 2016

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This paper analyses the influence of climate change and land development on future flood risk for selected Austrian flood-prone municipalities. As part of an anticipatory micro-scale risk assessment we simulated four different inundation scenarios for current and future 100-and 300-year floods (which included a climate change allowance), developed scenarios of future settlement growth in floodplains and evaluated changes in flood damage potentials and flood risk until the year 2030. Findings show that both climate change and settlement development significantly increase future levels of flood risk. However, the respective impacts vary strongly across the different cases. The analysis indicates that local conditions, such as the topography of the floodplain, the spatial allocation of vulnerable land uses or the type of land development (e.g. residential, commercial or industrial) in the floodplain are the key determinants of the respective effects of climate change and land development on future levels of flood risk. The case study analysis highlights the general need for a more comprehensive consideration of the local determinants of flood risk in order to increase the effectiveness of an adaptive management of flood risk dynamics.

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“…Furthermore, flood damage is projected to increase in the coming decades owing to on-going development in flood-prone areas and the projected effects of climate change on river discharges, and consequently flood probabilities (Middelkoop et al, 2001;IPCC, 2007;te Linde et al, 2010). Against this background, a growing number of studies have estimated the range of possible changes in the development of future flood damage in Europe (Hall et al, 2005;Aerts et al, 2008;ABI, 2009;Feyen et al, 2009;Maaskant et al, 2009;Bouwer et al, 2010;te Linde et al, 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How reliable are projections of future flood damage?

Bubeck

Moel

Bouwer

et al. 2011

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Flood damage modelling is an important component in flood risk management, and several studies have investigated the possible range of flood damage in the coming decades. Generally, flood damage assessments are still characterized by considerable uncertainties in stage-damage functions and methodological differences in estimating exposed asset values. The high variance that is commonly associated with absolute flood damage assessments is the reason for the present study that investigates the reliability of estimates of relative changes in the development of potential flood damage. While studies that estimate (relative) changes in flood damage over time usually address uncertainties resulting from different projections (e.g. land-use characteristics), the influence of different flood damage modelling approaches on estimates of relative changes in the development of flood damage is largely unknown. In this paper, we evaluate the reliability of estimates of relative changes in flood damage along the river Rhine between 1990 and 2030 in terms of different flood-damage modelling approaches. The results show that relative estimates of flood damage developments differ by a factor of 1.4. These variations, which result from the application of different modelling approaches, are considerably smaller than differences between the approaches in terms of absolute damage estimates (by a factor of 3.5 to 3.8), or than differences resulting from land-use projections (by a factor of 3). The differences that exist when estimating relative changes principally depend on the differences in damage functions. In order to improve the reliability of relative estimates of changes in the development of potential flood damage, future research should focus on reducing the uncertainties related to damage functions.

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Future risk of flooding: an analysis of changes in potential loss of life in South Holland (The Netherlands)

Cited by 59 publications

References 9 publications

Assessment of the Netherlands’ Flood Risk Management Policy Under Global Change

Assessment of the Netherlands’ Flood Risk Management Policy Under Global Change

Flood risk, climate change and settlement development: a micro-scale assessment of Austrian municipalities

How reliable are projections of future flood damage?

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