Future Scenarios of Climate Change Impacts on Fisheries and Aquaculture in Vietnam

Abstract

The Vietnamese fisheries sector, including both marine fisheries and aquaculture, has made spectacular progress in recent years, becoming one of the top seafood producing and exporting countries in the world. Looking forward, development goals of this sector must address challenges associated with climate change, including changing distribution of commercially important marine species such as tuna and disruptions to land-based aquaculture production systems. This study investigates the likely impacts of climate change on Vietnam’s fisheries sector by exploring plausible future scenarios for four key commodities representing capture fisheries (tuna), freshwater aquaculture (pangasius catfish and tilapia), and brackish water aquaculture (shrimp). The extent of impact varies, but climate change represents a potentially significant threat to sustainable production in each production system. Producers, policy makers, and other stakeholders need to plan for and adapt to climate change to ensure the sustainable development of Vietnam’s fisheries sector. This study uses a foresight scenario analysis using a qualitative scenario approach as the starting point for additional modeling of climate change impacts.