Future scenarios to inspire innovation

Smedt, Peter De; Borch, Kim; Fuller, Ted

doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2012.10.006

Cited by 59 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 50 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…The main objectives of awareness raising are the formulation and dissemination of socio-economic, environmental, infrastructural and/or technological trends that must be recognized and analysed before policy decisions are made [78][79][80][81]. Awareness raising by means of CSA includes the following types of activities:…”

Section: Awareness Raisingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interactive foresight simulation

Hansen

Rasmussen

Jacobsen

2016

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The Combined Simulation Approach (CSA) is a way to evaluate risks and address potential unforeseen problems in a more interactive way than what is often observed in practice in companies or sectors. The approach is based on a combination of scenario analysis and discrete-event computer simulation with which the strategies can be continuously developed. The contribution of this paper is to narrow the knowledge gapbetween strategic, tactical and operational levels of an organisation. The paper demonstrates how it is possible to work proactively with both the breadth and depth of strategies using a Danish knowledge intensive company as an example.

show abstract

Section: Awareness Raisingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interactive foresight simulation

Hansen

Rasmussen

Jacobsen

2016

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The information, knowledge and interpretation and resultant subjective opinion of FTA participants is decisive when dealing with grand challenges [3]. Thus, it is crucial to keep in mind when designing and running an FTA activity that the selection of experts [4,5] would strongly influence the analytical results and recommendations.…”

Section: Known Unknowns Unknown Knows and Unknown Unknownsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Systemic action is required for a collective transformation through the co--ordinated application of scientific/technological, social and business innovation simultaneously supported by political will. Furthermore, [5] and [13] underlines the on--going need for the greater involvement of stakeholders who can introduce necessary capabilities and interest in research and innovation to respond to grand challenges. Understanding the difficulties for FTA to dealing with the grand challenges of humanity helps, therefore, improve the FTA practice in developing its approaches, where FTA needs to demonstrate that there might be opportunities for innovation and new markets in grand challenges.…”

Section: Joint Responses To Grand Challengesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Both Hamarat et al [11] and Kwakkel and Pruit [12] apply an approach to forecasting that uses an ensemble of different models to explore a multiplicity of plausible futures (Exploratory Modelling and Analysis) and to assess multiple scenarios to support the design of dynamic adaptive policies. De Smedt et al [5] investigate ways, in which futures thinking - assisted by scenarios - can be used as a tool for inspiring actions and structures that address the grand challenges and for orienting innovation systems. Shaper--Rinkel [13] analyses future--oriented governance of emerging technologies in the USA and in Germany, and stresses the need of an organisational structure that includes a variety of actors and perspectives from the outset of an endeavour in order to properly foster nanotechnology by establishing governance structures able to coordinate interactions of relevant actors.…”

Section: Papers In This Special Issuementioning

confidence: 99%

“…De Smedt et al [5] claim that grand challenges require policy--makers to address a variety of interrelated issues, and they need to tap into uncoordinated and dispersed bodies of knowledge. Policy-- and other decision--makers should therefore devise and apply more experimental approaches to creating new solutions and include a new mode of public involvement.…”

Section: Papers In This Special Issuementioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Future-oriented technology analysis: Its potential to address disruptive transformations

Cagnin

Havas

Sarıtas

2013

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This paper reflects on the potential of future--oriented analysis (FTA) to address major change and to support decision--makers and other stakeholders in anticipating and dealing with transformations. It does so by critically reflecting on the selected papers for this special issue as well as on the discussions that took place at the fourth Seville International Conference on Future--oriented Technology Analysis. Considering the potential roles of FTA in enabling a better understanding of complex situations and in defining effective policy responses leads to the understanding that appropriate FTA practices are needed to enable FTA to fulfil such roles. Dealing with disruptive changes - and grand challenges in particular -, therefore, raises several conceptual, methodological and operational issues. Two of them are general, while further two are specific to the so--called grand challenges: i) distinguish known unknowns, unknown knows and unknown unknowns, ii) combine quantitative and qualitative approaches in a relevant and feasible way, iii) understand the complex and systemic nature of grand challenges, and iv) orchestrate joint responses to grand challenges. After a brief explanation of these issues, the paper outlines the main ideas of the papers published in this special issue. These present various methodological aspects of FTA approaches as well as some advances needed in practice to assist FTA practitioners and stakeholders in comprehending transformations and in tackling the so--called grand challenges.

show abstract

Reviewing models of land availability and dynamics for biofuel crops in the United States and the European Union

Virgilio

Guan

et al. 2013

Biofuels Bioprod Bioref

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The biofuel‐related land use in the USA and the EU has significantly expanded during the last decade; models have been used to estimate land availability and demand in these regions. This paper provides an overview of different land‐use modeling practices applicable to first‐ and second‐generation biofuels. We review the importance of different land categories for biofuels, modeling approaches (top‐down/bottom‐up) and their integration, data availability for calibration and validation, model scale, and uncertainty. Possible future changes of biofuel land use and research gaps and limitations are synthesized. Key issues are the lack of data for independent validation and the need for better integration of dynamic bottom‐up models into the top‐down policy analysis. More research is needed to deal with the large‐scale introduction of second‐generation biofuel crops required. The paper culminates in describing how models can help to meet the challenge of supplying more fuel from lignocellulosic crops (LCC) in ways that reduce indirect land‐use change (iLUC) and how such transition could be implemented in policy and practice. © 2013 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

show abstract

Future scenarios to inspire innovation

Cited by 59 publications

References 50 publications

Interactive foresight simulation

Interactive foresight simulation

Future-oriented technology analysis: Its potential to address disruptive transformations

Reviewing models of land availability and dynamics for biofuel crops in the United States and the European Union

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About