Future sea-level projections with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-sheet model

Park, Jun-Young; Schloesser, Fabian; Timmermann, Axel; Choudhury, Dipayan; Lee, June‐Yi; Nellikkattil, Arjun Babu

doi:10.1038/s41467-023-36051-9

Cited by 17 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 67 publications

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“…We are aware of two models that are very far apart from one another indeed. On the one hand, that in [66] seems to have a low tipping threshold that is already past; on the other hand, preliminary analysis indicates that the tipping threshold of LOVECLIP [67,68] is above 4 • C.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 90%

Inverse problems for climate policy mixes including geoengineering

Bodai,

Lembo,

Aneesh

et al. 2023

Preprint

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There is a palpable shift in mainstream attitude towards geoengineering, seen now as a potential part of a climate policy mix. Still, no-one wants to get on a slippery slope, compounding the risks, and, therefore, we should ask ourselves what is the minimal geoengineering that we can get away with. Such questions lead mathematically to inverse problems. Solving them is feasible only with lightweight models of the climate system, various types of which are nowadays often referred to as emulators – some more accurate than others. Here we develop an emulator using nonlinear response theory and apply it to two paradigmatic inverse problems relevant to climate policy. First, we investigate the attainability of the coveted Paris15 temperature targets. Second, through a simple multi-stable model, we determine what it takes to save the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) as we know it. Our results suggest, first, that solar radiation management (SRM) geoengineering, most commonly envisaged as sulfate aerosol injection, will likely have to be part of our climate policy mix, because realistic CO2 abatement effort to come alone cannot restrict global temperatures below 1.5 ◦C change or below even higher levels of change. Minimal sulfate use for a threshold target is achieved by immediate and abrupt deployment. Second, we demonstrate also the importance of precisely knowing not only the stable but also the unstable so-called Melancholia states of climate tipping elements, such as the GrIS, as miscalculations can lead to acting too late – whether it is CO2 abatement on the short term or SRM geoengineering deployed in the far future.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 90%

Inverse problems for climate policy mixes including geoengineering

Bodai,

Lembo,

Aneesh

et al. 2023

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…We are aware of two models that are very far apart from one another indeed. On the one hand, that in [64] seems to have a low tipping threshold that is already past; on the other hand, preliminary analysis indicates that the tipping threshold of LOVECLIP [65,66] is above 4 • C.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 90%

Inverse problems for climate policy mixes including geoengineering

Bodai,

Lembo,

Aneesh

et al. 2023

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

There is a palpable shift in mainstream attitude towards geoengineering, seen now as a potential part of a climate policy mix. Still, no-one wants to get on a slippery slope, compounding the risks, and, therefore, we should ask ourselves what is the minimal geoengineering that we can get away with. Such questions lead mathematically to inverse problems. Solving them is feasible only with lightweight models of the climate system, various types of which are nowadays often referred to as emulators – some more accurate than others. Here we develop an emulator using nonlinear response theory and apply it to two paradigmatic inverse problems relevant to climate policy. First, we investigate the attainability of the coveted Paris15 temperature targets. Second, through a simple multi-stable model, we determine what it takes to save the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) as we know it. Our results suggest, first, that as things stand presently, solar radiation management geoengineering will likely have to be part of our climate policy mix. Second, we demonstrate also the importance of precisely knowing not only the stable but also the unstable so-called Melancholia states of climate tipping elements, such as the GrIS, as miscalculations can lead to acting too late.

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“…An improved representation of physical processes important for the polar climate in CMIP6 models may reduce uncertainty in sea‐level simulations (Li et al., 2023; J. Y. Park et al., 2023; Topál et al., 2022). We also recognize that global climate models have several mean‐state biases over the Indo‐Pacific region (e.g., I. H. Park et al., 2022; Samanta, Hameed, et al., 2018; Samanta, Karnauskas, et al., 2018, 2019; Wills et al., 2022) including in CanESM (Swart et al., 2019), which may impact sea‐level simulation but are not investigated here.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…One of the major caveats of CMIP6-based attribution studies is the absence of barystatic components in the model simulations. An improved representation of physical processes important for the polar climate in CMIP6 models may reduce uncertainty in sea-level simulations (Li et al, 2023;J. Y.…”

Section: Limitations Of the Present Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

The Role of Anthropogenic Forcings on Historical Sea‐Level Change in the Indo‐Pacific Warm Pool Region

Samanta,

Vairagi,

Richter

et al. 2024

Earth's Future

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Detecting and attributing sea‐level rise over different spatiotemporal scales is essential for low‐lying and highly populated coastal regions. Using the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, we evaluate the role of anthropogenic forcing in sea‐level change in the historical (1950–2014) period in the Indo‐Pacific warm pool region. We use three models that have at least 10 ensemble members, corresponding to different DAMIP simulations. We determined the changes in regional sea level from both natural and anthropogenic forcings. Our results demonstrate: (a) the emergence of an anthropogenic footprint on regional sterodynamic sea‐level change has a large spatiotemporal diversity over the Indo‐Pacific warm pool region with the earliest emergence in the western Indian Ocean; (b) a significant rise in dynamic sea level (DSL) (up to 25 mm) and thermosteric (up to 40 mm) sea level over the western Indian Ocean due to greenhouse gas forcing; (c) a positive Indian Ocean Dipole‐like pattern in the DSL changes over the tropical Indian Ocean; (d) a significant increase in the halosteric contribution to sea‐level rise in the Indo‐Pacific warm pool region, and (e) a pronounced rise of manometric sea level (up to 20 mm) over shallow oceans and coastal regions in recent decades. These results provide a comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis of the attribution of anthropogenic factors to sea‐level changes in the Indo‐Pacific warm pool region.

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Future sea-level projections with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-sheet model

Cited by 17 publications

References 67 publications

Inverse problems for climate policy mixes including geoengineering

Inverse problems for climate policy mixes including geoengineering

Inverse problems for climate policy mixes including geoengineering

The Role of Anthropogenic Forcings on Historical Sea‐Level Change in the Indo‐Pacific Warm Pool Region

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