2021
DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2020.568219
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Future Socio-Political Scenarios for Aquatic Resources in Europe: A Common Framework Based on Shared-Socioeconomic-Pathways (SSPs)

Abstract: It has proven extremely challenging for researchers to predict with confidence how human societies might develop in the future, yet managers and industries need to make projections in order to test adaptation and mitigation strategies designed to build resilience to long-term shocks. This paper introduces exploratory scenarios with a particular focus on European aquaculture and fisheries and describes how these scenarios were designed. Short-, medium- and long-term developments in socio-political drivers may b… Show more

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Cited by 19 publications
(30 citation statements)
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“…The EU funded research project CERES created and tested a set of contrasting socio-political and climate change scenarios (Kreiss et al, 2020;Pinnegar et al, 2021) to inform both industry and policymakers on the potential future development of fisheries and aquaculture in Europe. Such information is needed to develop climate adaptation plans.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
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“…The EU funded research project CERES created and tested a set of contrasting socio-political and climate change scenarios (Kreiss et al, 2020;Pinnegar et al, 2021) to inform both industry and policymakers on the potential future development of fisheries and aquaculture in Europe. Such information is needed to develop climate adaptation plans.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…To enhance their usefulness, scenarios included elements needed to apply bioeconomic models to marine fisheries. The present paper, describes the narratives created for European fisheries using the four generic scenarios ("World Markets, " "National Enterprise, " "Global Sustainability, " and "Local Stewardship") presented by Pinnegar et al (2021). In the following, we described how these scenarios were applied to European fisheries including quantitative, regionally specific values or assumptions needed to apply bio-economic models of fisheries.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
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