Future surface temperature changes for the Iberian Peninsula according to EURO-CORDEX climate projections

Carvalho, David Ferreira; Pereira, S.

doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05472-3

Cited by 32 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…Overall, this analysis also enabled better documentation of some reported events, such as their intensity, duration, and spatial extension for the IP between 1961−2020. Furthermore, for this same period, the area-mean mean values over the IP revealed an upward trend in the frequency of occurrence of intermediate-to-severe dry events, which is in line with a general drying trend already reported by previous studies [2,4,23,32,51,58,59].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

“…It is commonly accepted that climate change has a direct link to the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme events [1]. The projected increases in temperature [2][3][4] and alterations in the precipitation patterns will be accompanied by more frequent and intense droughts, as well as floods [5]. These extreme events can have a deep impact on the economy [6][7][8], agriculture [9,10], and the environment [11].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate Change Projections of Dry and Wet Events in Iberia Based on the WASP-Index

Andrade¹,

Contente²,

Santos³

2021

Preprint

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The WASP-Index is computed over Iberia for three monthly timescales in 1961-2020, based on an observational gridded precipitation dataset (E-OBS), and in 2021-2070, based on bias-corrected precipitation generated by a six-member climate model ensemble from EURO-CORDEX, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The WASP performance in identifying extremely dry or wet events, reported by the EM-DAT disaster database, is assessed for 1961–2020. An overall good agreement between the WASP spatial patterns and the EM-DAT records is found. The areolar mean values revealed an upward trend in the frequency of occurrence of intermediate-to-severe dry events over Iberia, which will be strengthened in the future, particularly for the 12m-WASP intermediate dry events under RCP8.5. Besides, the number of 3m-WASP intermediate-to-severe wet events is projected to increase, mostly the severest events under RCP4.5, but no evidence was found for an increase in the number of more persistent (12m-WASP) wet events under both RCPs. Despite important spatial heterogeneities, an increase(decrease) of the intensity, duration, and frequency of occurrence of the 12m-WASP intermediate-to-severe dry(wet) events is found under both scenarios, mainly in the southernmost regions of Iberia, thus becoming more exposed to prolonged and severe droughts in the future, corroborating the results from previous studies.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Projections of Dry and Wet Events in Iberia Based on the WASP-Index

Andrade¹,

Contente²,

Santos³

2021

Preprint

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“…According to recent literature, the IP is also warming. The historical warming trend and the high increase in the minimum temperature have been extensively documented (e.g., [6,11,12,[17][18][19][20]). Some studies highlighted particular characteristics, such as (1) the central Peninsula temperature hiatus (e.g., [19,20]); (2) trend dependency on the chosen period [20]; (3) multi-physics ensembles [12,17], finally, (4) climate and climate variability in present-day simulations [9].…”

Section: Observed Changes and Future Projections In Temperaturementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Furthermore, there are significant differences among a 1.5 • C versus a 2 • C global warming (e.g., [37]) with southern Europe expecting greater changes in severe hot days [6,11,36,38] and an increase in minimum temperature [5,6,11,37,38] and a notable reduction in cold extremes (e.g., [5,6,11,36,38]).…”

Section: Observed Changes and Future Projections In Temperaturementioning

confidence: 99%

“…What might be extreme for one region can be a normal event for another. Southern and south-eastern Europe are identified as regions of interest for being areas most affected by extreme weather [5,6]. Hence, the Iberian Peninsula (IP) climate is susceptible to changes in precipitation and temperature because the reduction in precipitation in the preceding winter and spring months may affect the…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Temperature and Precipitation Extremes over the Iberian Peninsula under Climate Change Scenarios: A Review

Pereira

Carvalho

2021

Climate

Self Cite

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This paper presents the results of a systematic review of temperature and precipitation extremes over the Iberian Peninsula, focusing on observed changes in temperature and precipitation during the past years and what are the projected changes by the end of the 21st century. The purpose of this review is to assess the current literature about extreme events and their change under global warming. Observational and climate modeling studies from the past decade were considered in this review. Based on observational evidence and in climate modeling experiments, mean and maximum temperatures are projected to increase about 2 °C around the mid-century and up to 4 °C by the end of the century. The more pronounced warming is expected in summer for the central-south region of IP, with temperatures reaching 6 °C to 8 °C around 2100. Days with maximum temperature exceeding 30 °C and 40 °C will become more common (20 to 50 days/year), and the heatwaves will be 7 to 10 times more frequent. Significative reduction in events related to cold extremes. The climate change signal for precipitation in IP shows a considerable decline in precipitation (10–15%) for all seasons except winter. It is predicted that heavy precipitation will increase by 7% to 15%. Extreme precipitation will increase slightly (5%) by mid-century, then decline to 0% by 2100. Significant reduction in wet days (40% to 60%) followed by a dryness trend more pronounced by the end of the century.

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The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Wellbeing in the Municipality of Porto—An Analysis Based on Remote Sensing

Lopes

Remoaldo

Ribeiro

et al. 2023

Climate Change Management

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Future surface temperature changes for the Iberian Peninsula according to EURO-CORDEX climate projections

Cited by 32 publications

References 51 publications

Climate Change Projections of Dry and Wet Events in Iberia Based on the WASP-Index

Climate Change Projections of Dry and Wet Events in Iberia Based on the WASP-Index

Temperature and Precipitation Extremes over the Iberian Peninsula under Climate Change Scenarios: A Review

The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Wellbeing in the Municipality of Porto—An Analysis Based on Remote Sensing

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