Future transport systems: long-term visions and socio-technical transitions

Abstract

Long-term, system-level foresight is needed when grand challenges are addressed in the transport sector. This paper explores how socio-technical transitions can be anticipated and taken into account in strategic transport planning. Techniques to integrate long-term foresight and understanding of socio-technical change in the transport system to support long-term transport policy targets are introduced. The proposed approach extends and combines transport system vision building to analysis of system-level changes on a three-level framework. It presents a novel, policy relevant application in the field of socio-technical transitions. The case is demonstrated with a vision of a safe and secure Finnish transport system in 2100. First, a consistent transport system vision was created with transport experts and authorities using a structured vision building process. Second, key topics involved in the transition from the existing socio-technical system to the envisioned future were analysed using the three-level framework. The demonstration proved successful, and it has contributed to the understanding of importance of the shared long-term perspective in transport system decision-making and strategic planning. It has also generated wider discussion on transport system visions, desired futures paths as well as measures and changes required among the Finnish transport systems stakeholders.

TRIMIS: Modular Development of an Integrated Policy-Support Tool for Forward-Oriented Transport Research and Innovation Analysis

“…Identifying and assessing new emerging transport technologies and trends and the relative benefits and challenges is of strategic importance to academics, policymakers, and analysts in order to face the transport-related challenges of a transportation system that is based on interconnecting elements [21]. Under this perspective, the taxonomic representation of mobility services and technologies provides a common language for mapping and sharing information about smart mobility initiatives [22].…”

“…Furthermore, a systemic, long-term foresight is required in order to address major challenges in the transport sector, with the anticipation and consideration of potential socio-technical transitions in strategic transport planning [21]. Foresight can support policymaking at three levels: through informing, counseling, and providing guidance on the process [33].…”

Catalyzing Sustainable Transport Innovation through Policy Support and Monitoring: The Case of TRIMIS and the European Green Deal

“…Innovation in the transport sector has been historically characterized by small and incremental changes, often affected by the political and economic context, and in many cases being supported by policies and standards introduced by political and financial systems [4]. Technological advances and innovations, developed to address the often systemic nature of transport-related challenges, constitute part of a greater transport system which comprises a series of aligned elements [5].…”

A Framework for the Taxonomy and Assessment of New and Emerging Transport Technologies and Trends

“…The methodological identification, reporting and updating of new emerging transport technologies and trends, along with their associated benefits, implementation challenges, and risks, is one of the principal strategic objectives of academia, industry, policy agencies and analysts and has big social implications. Potential technological advances and innovations that are deployed in order to face the oftensystemic nature of transport-related challenges are part of a greater transport system that is constructed from a series of aligned elements (Auvinen, Tuominen 2014). To this aim, a taxonomy that identifies and links those elements, including transport trends, technologies and concepts, both past and future, can be helpful for the prompt identification of issues regarding their deployment, including the possible modal shift towards new mobility options and services.…”