Abstract:Comparison of projected future water demand and supply across the conterminous United States indicates that, due to improving efficiency in water use, expected increases in population and economic activity do not by themselves pose a serious threat of large-scale water shortages. However, climate change can increase water demand and decrease water supply to the extent that, barring major adaptation efforts, substantial future water shortages are likely, especially in the larger Southwest. Because further global temperature increases are probably unavoidable, adaptation will be essential in the areas of greatest increase in projected probability of shortage.
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SummaryThe likelihood of future water shortages depends on how water supply compares with demands for water use. Comparison of supply and demand within a probabilistic framework yields an estimate of the probability of shortage and thus a measure of the vulnerability of the water supply system. This comparison was performed for current conditions and for several possible future conditions reflecting alternative socio-economic scenarios and climatic projections. Examining alternative futures provides a measure of the extent to which serious future risks of water shortage must be anticipated.Water supply was quantified by first estimating freshwater input as precipitation minus evapotranspiration for each point in a grid covering the study area. These water inputs were then allocated to major river basins and made available to meet basic in-stream flow requirements, satisfy off-stream demands including those from downstream basins or those reached by trans-basin diversions, and add to reservoir storage. Off-stream demands were estimated as threshold quantities of desired water use based on extending past trends in water use under the assumption that water supply would be no more constraining to future water withdrawals than in the recent past. Modeling water supply and demand in this way does not provide a forecast of future shortage levels. Rather, it provides a projection of the degree to which water shortages would occur in the absence of adaptation measures to either increase supply or decrease demand.On a per capita basis, aggregate water withdrawal in the United States has been dropping since at least 1985. This reduction has occurred largely because of changes in the irrigation, thermoelectric, and industrial water use sectors. In the West, agricultural acreage has been decreasing and water withdrawal efficiency has been improving. Water withdrawal per kilowatt hour produced at thermoelectric plants has been steadily dropping as production has moved to more water-efficient plant types. And industrial water use has been dropping as industrial capacity has moved overseas and water recycling has become more common at remaining plants.Despite the reductions in per-capita water withdrawal, total U.S. withdrawal rose from 1985 to 2000, largely in response to population growth of roughly 2.7 million persons per year. However, the most recent ...