Future water availability in the largest freshwater Mediterranean lake is at great risk as evidenced from simulations with the SWAT model

Bucak, Tuba; Trolle, Dennis; Andersen, Hans Estrup; Thodsen, Hans; Erdoğan, Şeyda; Levi, Eti E.; Filiz, Nur; Jeppesen, Erik; Beklioğlu, Meryem

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.12.149

Cited by 74 publications

(40 citation statements)

References 50 publications

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“…This trend is highly consistent, appearing both in the country's average temperature and in the time series of individual stations, which agrees quite very well with the findings on a global scale [58,60,61]. This increase in temperature leads to an increase in evapotranspiration and a consequent decrease in the available water, especially in summer [62], leading to a water deficit increase [15].…”

Section: Climate Changes On Mediterranean Basinsupporting

confidence: 84%

Climate Change Impacts on Pinus pinea L. Silvicultural System for Cone Production and Ways to Contour Those Impacts: A Review Complemented with Data from Permanent Plots

Freire¹,

Rodrigues

Tomé

2019

Forests

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Umbrella pine (Pinus pinea L.) cones take three years to develop. With the increasing frequency of extreme droughts, water available for trees has decreased—climate change is a reality. The cone’s survival in its first two years of development and the average cone weight during its last year of maturation is affected, thus, reducing kernel quantity and quality. Climate change has resulted in forest fires becoming an inescapable issue in forest management planning. A literature review was carried out, focusing, on one hand, the predicted climatic changes for the Mediterranean basin and, on the other hand, the umbrella pine silvicultural mechanisms at tree, stand, and landscape levels that may help to face these constraints. Finally, the Portuguese case was focused, describing the management practices that are being adopted to achieve, even when the period of cone formation and growth include dry years, one to six tons of cones per hectare per year in adult stands.

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Section: Climate Changes On Mediterranean Basinsupporting

confidence: 84%

Climate Change Impacts on Pinus pinea L. Silvicultural System for Cone Production and Ways to Contour Those Impacts: A Review Complemented with Data from Permanent Plots

Freire¹,

Rodrigues

Tomé

2019

Forests

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“…For example, the largest Mediterranean lake, the lake Beyşehir in Turkey, may dry out by the 2040s if its outflow regime is not adapted. 29 The seasonality of stream flows is very likely to change, with earlier declines of high flows from snow melt in spring, intensification of low flows in summer and greater and more irregular discharges in winter. 30 The currently critically low water availabilities per capita in Southeastern Spain and the Southern shores (Fig.…”

Section: Five Interconnected Impact Domainsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change and interconnected risks to sustainable development in the Mediterranean

et al. 2018

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In the Mediterranean Basin, recent accelerated changes in the environment (climate, land use, pollution, biodiversity loss) have caused loss of life and damages to infrastructure and ecosystems. The future presents unprecedented risks for human well-being, socioeconomic development, ecosystems and biodiversity. Policies for sustainable development need to aim for the mitigation of these risks but lack adequate information about the rates of environmental change and the combined risk they present to human society. For five interconnected impact domains (water, ecosystems, food, health and security), trends and scenarios point to significant risks during coming decades. More observations and better impact models exist for the Northern Mediterranean shores than for the South. This important bias is exacerbated by the large difference in financial resources available for adaptation and the development of resilience between north and south. A dedicated effort to synthesize existing scientific knowledge from all relevant disciplines is now underway to provide better understanding of the risks posed. In the Mediterranean Basin, human society and the natural environment have co-evolved over several millennia with significant climatic variations, laying the ground for diverse and culturally rich communities. The region lies in a transition zone between mid-latitude and subtropical circulation regimes. It is characterized by a complex morphology of mountain chains and strong land-sea contrasts, dense and growing human population and various environmental pressures. Observed rates of climate change in the Mediterranean Basin exceed global trends for most variables. Annual mean temperatures are now 1.4 °C above late nineteenth century levels (Figure 1), notably during the summer months. Heat waves occur more frequently, and the frequency and intensity of droughts have increased since 1950. 1,2,3 For each of the most recent decades, the surface of the Mediterranean Sea has warmed by around 0.4 °C. 4 During the period 1945-2000, sea-level has risen at a rate of 0.7±0.2 mm yr-1 , 5 accelerating to 1.1 mm yr-1 for the period 1970-2006. 6 During the last two decades, sea-level has been estimated to rise by about 3 cm decade-1 , 7 in part due to

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“…aquifer recharge, d-excess, groundwater-surface water connectivity, Guarani aquifer system, lcexcess, stable isotopes 1 | INTRODUCTION Decrease in water availability in many parts of the world (Chenini, 2010;Li, Guo, Liu, & Chen, 2010;López-Moreno et al, 2014;Olmstead, 2014;Pingale, Jat, & Khare, 2014;Bucak et al, 2017;Tarroja et al, 2014), either due to a decrease in water storage or quality, have increased the international awareness for water security and sustainability under a changing climate (Foster & MacDonald, 2014). In this context, the spatial-temporal changes in water circulation and distribution under climate variability is challenging in water resources management.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Groundwater and surface water connectivity within the recharge area of Guarani aquifer system during El Niño 2014–2016

Batista

Gastmans

Sánchez‐Murillo

et al. 2018

Hydrological Processes

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Recharge areas of the Guarani Aquifer System (GAS) are particularly sensitive and vulnerable to climate variability; therefore, the understanding of infiltration mechanisms for aquifer recharge and surface run‐off generation represent a relevant issue for water resources management in the southeastern portion of the Brazilian territory, particularly in the Jacaré‐Pepira River watershed. The main purpose of this study is to understand the interactions between precipitation, surface water, and groundwater using stable isotopes during the strong 2014–2016 El Niño Southern Oscillation event. The large variation in the isotopic composition of precipitation (from −9.26‰ to +0.02‰ for δ18O and from −63.3‰ to +17.6‰ for δ2H), mainly associated with regional climatic features, was not reflected in the isotopic composition of surface water (from −7.84‰ to −5.83‰ for δ18O and from −49.7‰ to +33.6‰ for δ2H), mainly due to the monthly sampling frequency, and groundwater (from −7.04‰ to −7.76‰ for δ18O and from −49.5‰ to −44.7‰ for δ2H), which exhibited less variation throughout the year. However, variations in deuterium excess (d‐excess) in groundwater and surface water suggest the occurrence of strong secondary evaporation during the infiltration process, corresponding with groundwater level recovery. Similar isotopic composition in groundwater and surface water, as well as the same temporal variations in d‐excess and line‐conditioned excess denote the strong connectivity between these two reservoirs during baseflow recession periods. Isotopic mass balance modelling and hydrograph separation estimate that the groundwater contribution varied between 70% and 80%, however, during peak flows, the isotopic mass balance tends to overestimate the groundwater contribution when compared with the other hydrograph separation methods. Our findings indicate that the application of isotopic mass balance methods for ungauged rivers draining large groundwater reservoirs, such as the GAS outcrop, could provide a powerful tool for hydrological studies in the future, helping in the identification of flow contributions to river discharge draining these areas.

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Future water availability in the largest freshwater Mediterranean lake is at great risk as evidenced from simulations with the SWAT model

Cited by 74 publications

References 50 publications

Climate Change Impacts on Pinus pinea L. Silvicultural System for Cone Production and Ways to Contour Those Impacts: A Review Complemented with Data from Permanent Plots

Climate Change Impacts on Pinus pinea L. Silvicultural System for Cone Production and Ways to Contour Those Impacts: A Review Complemented with Data from Permanent Plots

Climate change and interconnected risks to sustainable development in the Mediterranean

Groundwater and surface water connectivity within the recharge area of Guarani aquifer system during El Niño 2014–2016

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