Future year ozone source attribution modeling studies for the eastern and western United States

Collet, Susan; Minoura, Hiroaki; Kidokoro, Toru; Sonoda, Yukihiro; Kinugasa, Yukio; Karamchandani, Prakash; Johnson, Jeremiah; Shah, Tejas; Jung, Jaegun; DenBleyker, Allison

doi:10.1080/10962247.2014.936629

Cited by 18 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…Differences between tagging and brute force methods are usually observed in secondary processes involving precursors from different sources. Some comparison studies (Collet et al, 2014;Koo et al, 2009) indicate that tagging is advantageous for source allocation rather than for predicting responses to emissions changes.…”

Section: Discussion Of Uncertainties and Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of a nitrogen emission control area (NECA) on the future air quality and nitrogen deposition to seawater in the Baltic Sea region

Karl¹,

Geyer²,

Matthias³

et al. 2018

Preprint

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Abstract. Air pollution due to shipping is a serious concern for coastal regions in Europe. Shipping emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) to air on the Baltic Sea are of similar magnitude (330&#8201;kt&#8201;y&#8722;1) as the combined land-based NOx emissions from Finland and Sweden in all emission sectors. Deposition of nitrogen compounds originating from shipping activities contribute to eutrophication of the Baltic Sea and coastal areas in the Baltic Sea region. For the North Sea and the Baltic Sea a nitrogen emission control area (NECA) will become effective in 2021; in accordance with the International Maritime Organization (IMO) target of reducing NOx emissions from ships. Future scenarios for 2040 were designed to study the effect of enforced and planned regulation of ship emissions and the fuel efficiency development on air quality and nitrogen deposition. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model was used to simulate the current and future air quality situation. The meteorological fields, the emissions from ship traffic and the emissions from land-based sources were considered at a grid resolution of 4&#8201;&#215;&#8201;4&#8201;km2 for the Baltic Sea region in nested CMAQ simulations. Model simulations for the present-day (2012) air quality show that shipping emissions are the major contributor to atmospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations over the Baltic Sea. In the business as usual (BAU) scenario, with the introduction of the NECA, NOx emissions from ship traffic in the Baltic Sea are reduced by about 80&#8201;% in 2040. An approximate linear relationship was found between ship emissions of NOx and the simulated levels of annual average NO2 over the Baltic Sea in year 2040, when following different future shipping scenarios. The burden of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) over the Baltic Sea region is predicted to decrease by 35&#8211;37&#8201;% between 2012 and 2040. The reduction of PM2.5 is larger over sea, where it drops by 50&#8211;60&#8201;% along the main shipping routes, and smaller over the coastal areas. The introduction of NECA is critical for reducing ship emissions of NOx to levels that are low enough to sustainably dampen ozone (O3) production in the Baltic Sea region. A second important effect of the NECA over the Baltic Sea region is the reduction of secondary formation of particulate nitrate. This lowers the ship-related PM2.5 by 72&#8201;% in 2040 compared to present-day, while it is reduced by only 48&#8201;% without implementation of the NECA. The effect of a lower fuel efficiency development on the absolute ship contribution of air pollutants is limited. Still, the annual mean ship contributions in 2040 to NO2, sulphur dioxide and PM2.5 and daily maximum O3 is significantly higher if a slower fuel efficiency development is assumed. Nitrogen deposition to the seawater of the Baltic Sea decreases on average by 40&#8211;44&#8201;% between 2012 and 2040 in the simulations. The effect of the NECA on nitrogen deposition is most significant in the western part of the Baltic Sea. It will be important to closely monitor compliance of individual ships with the planned nitrogen emission regulations.

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Section: Discussion Of Uncertainties and Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of a nitrogen emission control area (NECA) on the future air quality and nitrogen deposition to seawater in the Baltic Sea region

Karl¹,

Geyer²,

Matthias³

et al. 2018

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Tagged species methods, such as the Ozone and Particulate Source Apportionment Technology (OSAT/PSAT) in CAMx (Dunker et al, 2002;Yarwood et al, 2007), can effi-P. Karamchandani et al: Source-sector contributions to European ozone ciently track contributions from many source sectors and/or regions and provide source contributions that sum to the total concentration. These methods are increasingly being used to help understand complex air quality issues (e.g., Wagstrom et al, 2008;Burr and Zhang, 2011;Baker and Kelly, 2014;Collet et al, 2014;Wang et al, 2009;Li et al, 2012;Skyllakou et al, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Source-sector contributions to European ozone and fine PM in 2010 using AQMEII modeling data

Karamchandani

Long²,

Pirovano

et al. 2017

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

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Abstract. Source apportionment modeling provides valuable information on the contributions of different source sectors and/or source regions to ozone (O3) or fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations. This information can be useful in designing air quality management strategies and in understanding the potential benefits of reducing emissions from a particular source category. The Comprehensive Air quality Model with Extensions (CAMx) offers unique source attribution tools, called the Ozone and Particulate Source Apportionment Technology (OSAT/PSAT), which track source contributions. We present results from a CAMx source attribution modeling study for a summer month and a winter month using a recently evaluated European CAMx modeling database developed for Phase 3 of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII). The contributions of several source sectors (including model boundary conditions of chemical species representing transport of emissions from outside the modeling domain as well as initial conditions of these species) to O3 or PM2.5 concentrations in Europe were calculated using OSAT and PSAT, respectively. A 1-week spin-up period was used to reduce the influence of initial conditions. Evaluation focused on 16 major cities and on identifying source sectors that contributed above 5 %. Boundary conditions have a large impact on summer and winter ozone in Europe and on summer PM2.5, but they are only a minor contributor to winter PM2.5. Biogenic emissions are important for summer ozone and PM2.5. The important anthropogenic sectors for summer ozone are transportation (both on-road and non-road), energy production and conversion, and industry. In two of the 16 cities, solvent and product also contributed above 5 % to summertime ozone. For summertime PM2.5, the important anthropogenic source sectors are energy, transportation, industry, and agriculture. Residential wood combustion is an important anthropogenic sector in winter for PM2.5 over most of Europe, with larger contributions in central and eastern Europe and the Nordic cities. Other anthropogenic sectors with large contributions to wintertime PM2.5 include energy, transportation, and agriculture.

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“…In addition to the primary emitted particles in the ship exhaust, secondary particles are formed in the atmosphere by oxidation of emitted gaseous precursors -nitrogen oxides (NO x ) and sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) -during the dispersion of the ship exhaust. Mainly by contributing to the ambient levels of fine particulate matter, PM 2.5 (particles with a diameter of less than 2.5 µm), emissions from ship traffic are responsible for a large number of premature deaths globally (Corbett et al, 2007). According to Sofiev et al (2018b), the worldwide use of cleaner marine fuels with a lower content of sulfur will strongly reduce the ship-related premature mortality and morbidity by 34 % and 54 %, respectively.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of a nitrogen emission control area (NECA) on the future air quality and nitrogen deposition to seawater in the Baltic Sea region

et al. 2019

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Air pollution due to shipping is a serious concern for coastal regions in Europe. Shipping emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) in air over the Baltic Sea are of similar magnitude (330 kt yr−1) as the combined land-based NOx emissions from Finland and Sweden in all emission sectors. Deposition of nitrogen compounds originating from shipping activities contribute to eutrophication of the Baltic Sea and coastal areas in the Baltic Sea region. For the North Sea and the Baltic Sea a nitrogen emission control area (NECA) will become effective in 2021; in accordance with the International Maritime Organization (IMO) target of reducing NOx emissions from ships. Future scenarios for 2040 were designed to study the effect of enforced and planned regulation of ship emissions and the fuel efficiency development on air quality and nitrogen deposition. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model was used to simulate the current and future air quality situation. The meteorological fields, the emissions from ship traffic and the emissions from land-based sources were considered at a grid resolution of 4×4 km2 for the Baltic Sea region in nested CMAQ simulations. Model simulations for the present-day (2012) air quality show that shipping emissions are the major contributor to atmospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations over the Baltic Sea. In the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, with the introduction of the NECA, NOx emissions from ship traffic in the Baltic Sea are reduced by about 80 % in 2040. An approximate linear relationship was found between ship emissions of NOx and the simulated levels of annual average NO2 over the Baltic Sea in the year 2040, when following different future shipping scenarios. The burden of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) over the Baltic Sea region is predicted to decrease by 35 %–37 % between 2012 and 2040. The reduction in PM2.5 is larger over sea, where it drops by 50 %–60 % along the main shipping routes, and is smaller over the coastal areas. The introduction of NECA is critical for reducing ship emissions of NOx to levels that are low enough to sustainably dampen ozone (O3) production in the Baltic Sea region. A second important effect of the NECA over the Baltic Sea region is the reduction in secondary formation of particulate nitrate. This lowers the ship-related PM2.5 by 72 % in 2040 compared to the present day, while it is reduced by only 48 % without implementation of the NECA. The effect of a lower fuel efficiency development on the absolute ship contribution of air pollutants is limited. Still, the annual mean ship contributions in 2040 to NO2, sulfur dioxide and PM2.5 and daily maximum O3 are significantly higher if a slower fuel efficiency development is assumed. Nitrogen deposition to the seawater of the Baltic Sea decreases on average by 40 %–44 % between 2012 and 2040 in the simulations. The effect of the NECA on nitrogen deposition is most significant in the western part of the Baltic Sea. It will be important to closely monitor compliance of individual ships with the enforced and planned emission regulations.

show abstract

Future year ozone source attribution modeling studies for the eastern and western United States

Cited by 18 publications

References 11 publications

Impact of a nitrogen emission control area (NECA) on the future air quality and nitrogen deposition to seawater in the Baltic Sea region

Impact of a nitrogen emission control area (NECA) on the future air quality and nitrogen deposition to seawater in the Baltic Sea region

Source-sector contributions to European ozone and fine PM in 2010 using AQMEII modeling data

Impact of a nitrogen emission control area (NECA) on the future air quality and nitrogen deposition to seawater in the Baltic Sea region

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