Futures Thinking and Healthy Cities

Hancock, Trevor; Bezold, Clem

doi:10.1007/978-1-4939-6694-3_19

Cited by 14 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…The "futures cone" model has been a popular research framework among various futurists. Specifically, the model was used to portray alternative futures by Hancock and Bezold (1994) and was itself based on a taxonomy of futures by Henchey (1978), wherein four main classes of the future, the possible, plausible, probable and preferable, were discussed (Voros, 2003). Seo (2018) incorporated the basic premises of the futures cone model into the domain of policy studies.…”

Section: Research Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Priority setting for 2050 future images and policy agendas of the Republic of Korea: engaging the national assembly

Heo

Lee²,

Min³

2022

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Purpose This study aims to identify and prioritize preferable 2050 future images and the policy agendas of the Republic of Korea using a bottom-up approach, involving legislative staff of the National Assembly as well as experts from various fields. Design/methodology/approach The authors derived three future images from the future policy agendas selected by experts: society for growth of smart generations (GS), society for sustainability and safety (SS) and society for coexistence and diversity (CD). The survey conducted among legislative staff (n = 189) shows that the most preferred future image was SS. Then, the authors prioritized the policy agendas that aligned with future images using priority calculating methods. Findings The most prioritized policy agenda was “Social system for coexistence to resolve social conflict,” followed by “Social sustainability through tackling low birth rate.” The next was “Social integration policies to embrace diverse family composition” and “Responding to social change and knowledge transformation caused by artificial intelligence.” Among the top five rankings, two agendas from each SS and CD were selected. Practical implications To achieve the preferred future images, implementing policies related to sustainability, human rights and coexistence are necessary for continuous collaboration among stakeholders, especially those from the legislature. Originality/value This study presents a method of involving the National Assembly, which is a representative institution of the people and composed of various political parties, to set the national’s future vision and agenda from a long-term perspective.

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Section: Research Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Priority setting for 2050 future images and policy agendas of the Republic of Korea: engaging the national assembly

Heo

Lee²,

Min³

2022

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“…For those of us who can’t or won’t think beyond our own vision of probable, the “Futures Cone” 2 (see Figure 1) should prompt us to reexamine our thoughts and our conscience about the future of medical education. The original diagram first appeared in a report from an international consultation convening by the World Health Organization entitled “Health futures in support of health for all.” 3 It has since been modified to its current form by Voros, 2 who uses it in “foresight teaching and practice.” 3 What will the future hold along the spectrum from the “preferable” to “preposterous” if we don’t design a future for medical education that is resilient rather than reactive?…”

Section: The Year Is 2021…mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The original diagram first appeared in a report from an international consultation convening by the World Health Organization entitled "Health futures in support of health for all. " 3 It has since been modified to its current form by Voros, 2 who uses it in "foresight teaching and practice. " 3 What will the future hold along the spectrum from the "preferable" to "preposterous" if we don't design a future for medical education that is resilient rather than reactive?…”

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confidence: 99%

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Harnessing the Potential Futures of CBME Here and Now

Carraccio

2021

Academic Medicine

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“…2 2 Note that this diverges from a recent suggestion to equate “feasible” futures with “possible” futures and define “plausible” futures as those which empirical evidence about recent trends in key drivers and enabling conditions point to (Engels et al, 2023; Engels & Marotzke, 2023; Stammer et al, 2021). In futures studies, futures which result from recent empirical trends are normally defined as “probable” (Dorsser et al, 2018; Hancock & Bezold, 1994; Henchey, 1978; Voros, 2003)—See Box 1. …”

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confidence: 99%

The feasibility of climate action: Bridging the inside and the outside view through feasibility spaces

Jewell

Cherp

2023

WIREs Climate Change

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The feasibility of different options to reduce the risks of climate change has engaged scholars for decades. Yet there is no agreement on how to define and assess feasibility. We define feasible as “do‐able under realistic assumptions.” A sound feasibility assessment is based on causal reasoning; enables comparison of feasibility across climate options, contexts, and implementation levels; and reflexively considers the agency of its audience. Global climate scenarios are a good starting point for assessing the feasibility of climate options since they represent causal pathways, quantify implementation levels, and consider policy choices. Yet, scenario developers face difficulties to represent all relevant causalities, assess the realism of assumptions, assign likelihood to potential outcomes, and evaluate the agency of their users, which calls for external feasibility assessments. Existing approaches to feasibility assessment mirror the “inside” and the “outside” view coined by Kahneman and co‐authors. The inside view considers climate change as a unique challenge and seeks to identify barriers that should be overcome by political choice, commitment, and skill. The outside view assesses feasibility through examining historical analogies (reference cases) to the given climate option. Recent studies seek to bridge the inside and the outside views through “feasibility spaces,” by identifying reference cases for a climate option, measuring their outcomes and relevant characteristics, and mapping them together with the expected outcomes and characteristics of the climate option. Feasibility spaces are a promising method to prioritize climate options, realistically assess the achievability of climate goals, and construct scenarios with empirically‐grounded assumptions.This article is categorized under: Climate, History, Society, Culture > Disciplinary Perspectives Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Representing Uncertainty The Carbon Economy and Climate Mitigation > Decarbonizing Energy and/or Reducing Demand

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Futures Thinking and Healthy Cities

Cited by 14 publications

References 3 publications

Priority setting for 2050 future images and policy agendas of the Republic of Korea: engaging the national assembly

Priority setting for 2050 future images and policy agendas of the Republic of Korea: engaging the national assembly

Harnessing the Potential Futures of CBME Here and Now

The feasibility of climate action: Bridging the inside and the outside view through feasibility spaces

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