Futuristic changes in monthly meteorological parameters as simulated by four GCMs under four emission-based scenarios at Ludhiana, Punjab

Kaur, Jatinder; Kaur, Prabhjyot; Kothiyal, Shivani

doi:10.1007/s12517-022-10199-y

Cited by 3 publications

(4 citation statements)

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“…34 Similarly, the three regional studies show a clear increase in temperature and high variability in rainfall which requires attention as these projected changes may affect the major cereal crops of Indian Punjab. [26][27][28][29][30] The projected decrease in yield of maize can only be nullified with the use of suitable agronomic adaptation practices. The optimization of nitrogen application rate to 64, 128 and 160 kg ha −1 under rainfed conditions helped in improving the maize yield for early, medium and late maturing varieties.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The results for mid‐century (2020–2049) showed an increase during spring and autumn seasons in maximum temperature by 2.1 and 1.8 °C, respectively, and in minimum temperature by 3.2 and 3.3 °C, respectively, and in rainfall by 15 and 81 mm, respectively. During the end of the 21st century the projected temperature and rainfall were predicted to have more variability 29 . In the Punjab state in the present study these variations in temperature and rainfall under current sowing window (end‐May to end‐June) showed a yield decline for cv PMH 1 during near and far futures, respectively, by 4–11% and 60–80% at AZ II; 5–60% and 6–70% under RCP 2.6, 6–60% and 60–90% under RCP 8.5 at AZ III; 11–30% and 8–44% under RCP 2.6, 9–38% and 76–91% under RCP 8.5 at AZ IV; 13–40% and 31–64% under RCP 2.6, 16–49% and 79–95% under RCP 8.5 at AZ V (Abohar) and 0–20% under RCP 2.6, 5–14% and 68–88% under RCP 8.5 at AZ V (Faridkot).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A study reported that while using CERES‐Maize model without any changes in adaptation strategies, the maize yield showed a reduction of 11.5–13.5% in total maize production across the cultivars used 34 . Similarly, the three regional studies show a clear increase in temperature and high variability in rainfall which requires attention as these projected changes may affect the major cereal crops of Indian Punjab 26–30 . The projected decrease in yield of maize can only be nullified with the use of suitable agronomic adaptation practices.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…During the end of the 21st century the projected temperature and rainfall were predicted to have more variability. 29 In the Punjab state in the present study these variations in temperature and rainfall under current sowing window (end-May to end-June) showed a yield decline for cv PMH 1 during near and far futures, respectively, by 4-11% and 60-80% at AZ II; 5-60% and 6-70% under RCP 2.6, 6-60% and 60-90% under RCP 8.5 at AZ III; 11-30% and 8-44% under RCP 2.6, 9-38% and 76-91% under RCP 8.5 at AZ IV; 13-40% and 31-64% under RCP 2.6, 16-49% and 79-95% under RCP 8.5 at AZ V (Abohar) and 0-20% under RCP 2.6, 5-14% and 68-88% under RCP 8.5 at AZ V (Faridkot). Similarly, cv PMH 2 observed a yield decline during near and far futures, respectively, by 4-11% and 9-23% under RCP 2.6, 7-14% and 62-69% under RCP 8.5 at AZ II; 5-60% and 20-70% under RCP 2.6, 10-60% and 50-90% under RCP 8.5 at AZ III; 11-30% and 8-44% under RCP 2.6, 9-38% and 76-91% under RCP 8.5 at AZ IV; 6-28% and 21-46% under RCP 2.6, 12-38% and 77-96% under RCP 8.5 at AZ V (Abohar) and 0-20% under RCP 2.6, 5-14% and 68-88% under RCP 8.5 at AZ V (Faridkot).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modelling the climate change impact of mitigation (RCP 2.6) and high emission (RCP 8.5) scenarios on maize yield and possible adaptation measures in different agroclimatic zones of Punjab, India

et al. 2023

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BACKGROUNDA simulation study was performed for assessing climate change impact on maize under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6 and 8.5) for Punjab, India. The study area comprised five agroclimatic zones (AZs) including seven locations. The bias corrected temperature and rainfall data from four models (CSIRO‐Mk‐3‐6‐0, FIO‐ESM, IPSL‐CM5A‐MR and Ensemble) were used as input in CERES‐Maize model which was run with constant management practices for two Punjab maize hybrids (PMH 1 and PMH 2). The maize yield for upcoming 70 years (2025–2095) was simulated and its deviations from the baseline (2010–2021) yield were computed under optimized sowing (early‐May to early‐July) and current sowing (end‐May to end‐June) period.RESULTSWith current sowing dates, the maize yield declined under both RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively in all the AZs, that is, by 4–23% and 60–80% in AZ II, by 5–60% and 60–90% in AZ III, by 9–30% and 50–90% in AZ IV and by 13–40% and 30–90% in AZ V. Though yield decline was lesser under RCP 2.6 as compared to RCP 8.5, but still it indicates that adaptive strategy such as shifting of sowing dates may be helpful in stabilizing the maize yield.CONCLUSIONThe results for iterative combinations of sowing period revealed that early June sowing in AZ II for both the hybrids, mid‐ to end‐June (Ludhiana and Amritsar) and end‐May to mid‐June (Patiala) sowings for PMH 1 were able to nullify the negative impact of climate change. Maize cultivation in AZ IV and AZ V would not be a suitable venture for farmers of the region. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.

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