Fuzzy cognitive modeling of product import and export impacts on food security

Abstract

The modern economy of the Russian Federation is in a difficult foreign economic situation, due to the sanctions pressure forced import substitution in a number of sectors of agricultural production. The sanctions imposed by developed countries led to a response from Russia, which imposed an embargo on certain groups of agricultural raw materials and food products. The aim of the research is to develop and implement software for fuzzy cognitive modeling of the level of food security in the context of import substitution, taking into account food exports. To determine the perspective directions of numerical estimation and increase the level of FS in modern Russia, by modeling and justifying import substitution, the method of fuzzy cognitive mathematical modeling is used, which allows us to build models of the evolution of the emerging level of interaction of key factors of the simulated system. The conducted cognitive modeling of the FS level showed that import substitution increases infrastructure costs and has a positive effect on the overall economic situation, as it determines the development of production. The study of the mutual influence of the import substitution factor, within the framework of ensuring the required level of FS, is limited by the existing conditions, largely determined by the sanctions pressure on the Russian Federation. It is shown that a promising area of research is the analysis of the sensitivity of the cognitive model to the influence of all key factors, as well as the search for factors that are most responsive to the control actions of the governing bodies.