Fuzzy Set Theory and U.S. Arms Transfers: Modeling the Decision-Making Process

Politics of Risk-taking : Welfare State Reform in Advanced Democracies

“…Individuals do not always act risk averse, as expected utility accounts postulate, but attitudes towards risk vary across circumstances (domains). For example, Quattrone & Tversky (2000[1988) demonstrate through problems involving the choice between political candidates and public referendum issues that the assumptions underlying expected utility theory are systematically violated in the manner predicted by prospect theory. Specifically, they show that prospect theory's predictions are supported whilst those of expected utility theory are not.…”

“…Fuzzy-set theory originates from Artificial Intelligence (Zadeh 1965) and is applied in different fields (e.g. Cioffi-Revilla 1981;Sanjian 1988;Casario & Dadkhah 1998 An important feature of fuzzy-set theory is that cases' membership in different sets of concepts can vary: anything between full and none membership is possible. The researcher establishes two qualitative breakpoints , 1 and 0, to determine when a case is 'fully in' or 'fully out' of a set.…”

Extension of the portfolio allocation model to surplus majority governments: a fuzzy approach

“…Taber (1992) and Seitz (1994) employed fuzzy expert systems to simulate decision-making in international relations, Koenig-Archibugi (2004), Arfi (2005), and Sanjian (1988Sanjian ( , 1991Sanjian ( , 1992Sanjian ( , 1998Sanjian ( , 1999Sanjian ( , 2001 used fuzzy mathematics to test hypotheses concerning decision-making in international relations, and Pennings (2003) used a fuzzy logic method developed by Charles C. Ragin (2000) to test for necessary and sufficient conditions in executive accountability. Perhaps the most important impediment to the wider use of fuzzy logic is related to the assignment of membership values (see Smithson and Verkuilen 2006;Verkuilen 2005).…”

Great Power Arms Transfers: Modeling the Decision-Making Processes of Hegemonic, Industrial, and Restrictive Exporters

“…The fuzzy set studies of Nurmi (1981) and Seitz (1985) also deal with political subjects, the first focusing on voting coalitions and the second on conflict management. The arms transfers topic has yielded two fuzzy set inquiries (Sanjian, 1988a(Sanjian, , 1988c, both on the hegemonic export pattern. The first study of arms transfer found that a fuzzy decision-making model outperformed a comparable probability model, while the second applied the principles of fuzzy control theory to the arms process.…”

“…policy making (Chadwick, 1986;Mintz, 1986aMintz, , 1986bSanjian, 1988aSanjian, , 1988c by developing a fuzzy multi-criteria model that can be applied to each of SIPRI's three arms export patterns. The multiple criteria of the arms trade model are the geopolitical, economic, and regional stability goals noted above.…”