Ganoderma boninense Disease of Oil Palm to Significantly Reduce Production After 2050 in Sumatra if Projected Climate Change Occurs

Abstract

Palm oil is a valuable crop. This relates to the high economic return from sales of the commodity, where Indonesia is the major producer in the world and the island of Sumatra is the most important region for palm oil production in the country. The island can be considered as a model for other oil palm growing regions in SE Asia. The area in Sumatra with a suitable climate for growing oil palm will decrease in size due to projected climate change as demonstrated specifically herein. The more unsuitable climate will lead to concomitant increases in basal stem rot (BSR) by Ganoderma boninense, as previously predicted, which is of major concern to sustainability in SE Asia. A novel approach is described herein, whereby (a) a determination of suitable climate for growing oil palm in Sumatra and (b) deductions to determine future BSR levels on the island were undertaken. The unsuitability of the climate for oil palm is predicted to increase dramatically after 2050 when BSR is predicted to increase to very high levels on most parts of the island. This is likely to make palm oil production unsustainable at some stage between 2050 and 2100. North Sumatra may be more sustainable than the other areas considered in Sumatra. These effects of projected climate change require amelioration before the high levels of BSR and the unsuitable climate for oil palm are realized.

Oil palm survival under climate change in Kalimantan and alternative SE Asian palm oil countries with future basal stem rot assessments

“…The incidence of BSR for Papua New Guinea is considerably less than that predicted for other situations in, for example, (a) Sumatra, Indonesia (Paterson, 2019a) and (b) Thailand, and Myanmar (see below). The percentage of living OP which did not have BSR was predicted to be 36% (Table 1) by 2100.…”

“…In Thailand, most of the highly suitable climate was in the south (Paterson et al, 2015(Paterson et al, , 2017. The large increase in marginal climate predicted for Thailand would be detrimental to the The incidence of BSR was considered very high in the future for Sumatra, Indonesia (Paterson, 2019a) and peninsular Malaysia (Paterson, 2019b) using similar methods to those described herein.…”

“…Distances These oil palm could also be affected by other diseases (Corley & Tinker, 2015). scenario of a 3% increase in BSR every 10 years was also provided as a scenario to account for the increased virulence of G. boninense per se (Paterson, 2019a). Long periods of highly suitable climate were predicted and maintained until 2070.…”

“…Furthermore, OP is affected by various diseases including basal stem rot (BSR) caused by Ganoderma boninense which is the most important disease in SE Asia. Current predicted climate alterations are likely to increase the levels of BSR, affecting detrimentally the sustainability of the industry (Paterson, 2019a(Paterson, , 2019b. Ganoderma is a variable genus with poorly defined species concepts (Zhou et al, 2015).…”

Relationship between Ganoderma Ergosterol Concentration and Basal Stem Rot Disease Progress on Elaeis guineensis

“…(Idris et al 2011). Paterson (2019) reported that the disease is increasing in inland Peninsular Malaysia and also Sabah, Malaysia, and in some cases at high levels, whereas it has not been detected before. Several attempts have been made to control BSR using various control methods; however to date, none of the methods gave promising results in management of Ganoderma boninense, the major causal pathogen of BSR disease (Ariffin et al 2000;Sanderson et al 2000;Susanto et al 2005).…”