Gaps between fruit and vegetable production, demand, and recommended consumption at global and national levels: an integrated modelling study

Abstract

Background Current diets are detrimental to both human and planetary health and shifting towards more balanced, predominantly plant-based diets is seen as crucial to improving both. Low fruit and vegetable consumption is itself a major nutritional problem. We aim to better quantify the gap between future fruit and vegetable supply and recommended consumption levels by exploring the interactions between supply and demand in more than 150 countries from 1961 to 2050. Methods In this global analysis, we use the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade, which simulates the global agricultural sector, to explore the role of insufficient production of fruits and vegetables and the effects of food waste and public policy in achieving recommended fruit and vegetable consumption. First, we estimate the average historical (1961-2010) and future (2010-50) national consumption levels needed to meet WHO targets (a minimum target of 400 g/person per day or age-specific recommendations of 330-600 g/person per day) using population pyramids; for future consumption, we use projections from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), a set of global socioeconomic scenarios characterised by varied assumptions on economic and population growth. We then simulate future fruit and vegetable production and demand to 2050 under three such scenarios (SSP1-3) to assess the potential impacts of economic, demographic, and technological change on consumer and producer behaviour. We then explore the potential effects of food waste applying various waste assumptions (0-33% waste). Finally, we apply two policy analysis frameworks (the NOURISHING framework and the Nuffield ladder) to assess the current state of public policy designed to achieve healthy diets. Findings Historically, fruit and vegetable availability has consistently been insufficient to supply recommended consumption levels. By 2015, 81 countries representing 55% of the global population had average fruit and vegetable availability above WHO's minimum target. Under more stringent age-specific recommendations, only 40 countries representing 36% of the global population had adequate availability. Although economic growth will help to increase fruit and vegetable availability in the future, particularly in lower-income countries, this alone will be insufficient. Even under the most optimistic socioeconomic scenarios (excluding food waste), many countries fail to achieve sufficient fruit and vegetable availability to meet even the minimum recommended target. Sub-Saharan Africa is a particular region of concern, with projections suggesting, by 2050, between 0•8 and 1•9 billion people could live in countries with average fruit and vegetable availability below 400 g/person per day. Food waste is a serious obstacle that could erode projected gains. Assuming 33% waste and socioeconomic trends similar to historical patterns, the global average availability in 2050 falls below age-specific recommendations, increasing the number of people living in countries ...

Working landscapes need at least 20% native habitat

“…A large percentage of global cultivated area now produces nonfood crops, from cotton to sugarcane, soybeans, oil palm, and maize used for biofuel or animal feed (Ramankutty et al, 2018). While current food production largely meets global caloric needs, it fails to provide the diversity required in a healthy diet, notably fruits, nuts, and vegetables (Mason-D'Croz et al, 2019). Rather than expanding the extent of intensive agricultural areas and eliminating NWL, a shift to more diverse and multifunctional landscapes sustaining native habitats alongside vegetable, fruit, and nut production could produce more nutritious food per unit-area (Mason-D'Croz et al, 2019).…”

“…While current food production largely meets global caloric needs, it fails to provide the diversity required in a healthy diet, notably fruits, nuts, and vegetables (Mason-D'Croz et al, 2019). Rather than expanding the extent of intensive agricultural areas and eliminating NWL, a shift to more diverse and multifunctional landscapes sustaining native habitats alongside vegetable, fruit, and nut production could produce more nutritious food per unit-area (Mason-D'Croz et al, 2019). In this way, >20% NWL area can contribute nature's benefits to people both locally and globally.…”

Fruit and vegetable consumption in Europe according to gender, educational attainment and regional affiliation—A cross-sectional study in 21 European countries

“…[1,2,3] In addition to positive health impacts, a shift towards healthier plant-based diets will most likely have important environmental impacts by reducing the environmental footprint. [4] Thus, increasing fruit and vegetable consumption is an important component of a shift towards both healthier and more sustainable diets.…”

Definitions, Sources and Self-Reported Consumption of Regionally Grown Fruits and Vegetables in Two Regions of Australia

“…Low levels of fruit and vegetable consumption are driven by many interconnected factors [6]. The evidence for a relationship between environmental conditions and fruit and vegetable consumption is increasing [7].…”