Gas production peaks in China: Research and strategic proposals

Lu, Jialiang; Zhao, Suping; Sun, Yize; Tang, Hongjun

doi:10.1016/j.ngib.2018.01.011

Cited by 12 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…For this reason, the forecast monthly production data in this paper are summarized into annual data, and these data used in the comparison. The data to make this comparison were selected from [4], [5], [6], World As can be seen from Fig. 11, the predictions of natural gas production in China from 2019 to 2023 given in this paper are very close to those of other literature covering this period, indicating that the results of this paper are reasonable.…”

Section: Discussion On the Rationality Of The Prediction Resultssupporting

confidence: 59%

“…A multicycle Hubbert model, and a rolling grey model, have been applied to forecast natural gas production of China up to 2050 [4]. Production of conventional gas (including tight gas), coalbed methane and shale gas in China up to 2050 have been predicted using multiple methods [5]. The multicycle Generalized Weng model has been chosen to predict the long-term trend of natural gas production in China up to 2100 [6].…”

Section: J O U R N a L P R E -P R O O Fmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Predicting monthly natural gas production in China using a novel grey seasonal model with particle swarm optimization

Wang

et al. 2021

Energy

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Section: Discussion On the Rationality Of The Prediction Resultssupporting

confidence: 59%

Section: J O U R N a L P R E -P R O O Fmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting monthly natural gas production in China using a novel grey seasonal model with particle swarm optimization

Wang

et al. 2021

Energy

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“…China's CBM industry involves many departments, such as coal, land, taxation, electricity, and environmental production departments . The initial stage of developing CBM requires guidance, regulation, support, and supervision from the government.…”

Section: General Problems Of China's Cbm Industrymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…China's CBM industry involves many departments, such as coal, land, taxation, electricity, and environmental production departments. 84 The initial stage of developing CBM requires guidance, regulation, support, and supervision from the government. As shown in Table 2, China's CBM industry lacks relevant laws (only coal law), regulations and macrocontrol, and there are no marketing systems, evaluations of developers' qualifications, safety utilization management standards and quality standards, or regulations to protect the gas resources and industry.…”

Section: Ill-defined Laws Regulations and Macroeconomic Regulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Current status, challenges, and policy suggestions for coalbed methane industry development in China: A review

Tao

Chen

Pan

2019

Energy Science & Engineering

215

116

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China is vigorously promoting the development of coalbed methane (CBM) resources because CBM is cleaner than coal and a hazardous gas in coal mining. However, the CBM production in China is significantly lower than that in other coal‐rich countries, such as Australia and the United States. In this paper, the main problems hindering CBM development in China are discussed to provide management suggestions for the government. These key problems include exploration and development techniques, the overlap of mining rights, management, financial supporting policy, investment environment, regulations, and market conditions. The results of this study indicate that to improve the development of the CBM industry in China, national and local governments must enact specific and exercisable regulations to increase financial support, improve technology, increase investment in CBM exploration, strengthen public project establishment, and improve the reform of CBM exploration and development policies.

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“…Wang et al 16 pointed out that China imports 1408 × 10 8 M 3 of natural gas, with NGED reaching 43% in 2020, with incremental imports mainly originating from Russia. Hou et al 17 and Lu et al 18 further pointed out that, with the rising external dependence on oil and gas, it was important to actively consider how to safeguard national energy security, control external dependence at a reasonable level, and seize the lead in the energy technology revolution in a low-carbon and green energy revolution.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting China's natural gas external dependence under the “Dual Carbon” goals by a new grey model

Гонг

Song

et al. 2023

Science Progress

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As a low-carbon and cost-effective clean energy source, natural gas plays an important role in achieving China's “Dual Carbon” target. In this article, a new three-parameter discrete grey prediction model is used to simulate and forecast the production and consumption of natural gas in China from the perspective of background value optimization. Then the minimum mean absolute percentage error as the objective function from the perspective of fractional order cumulative generation in the real number field. Last, a fractional order in the real number field three parameter discrete grey prediction model TDGM(1,1,z,r(R)) is constructed under the condition of optimal background value. Then we use the model to simulate and predict China's Natural Gas External Dependence (NGED) under the “Dual Carbon” target. The results show that the performance of the new model is better than that of the traditional model GM(1,1) and DGM(1,1), thus proving the practicability and effectiveness of the new model. Put forward relevant policy suggestions according to the prediction results of China's NGED, and provide decision-making reference for the Chinese government to achieve the “Dual Carbon” goals.

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Gas production peaks in China: Research and strategic proposals

Cited by 12 publications

References 3 publications

Predicting monthly natural gas production in China using a novel grey seasonal model with particle swarm optimization

Predicting monthly natural gas production in China using a novel grey seasonal model with particle swarm optimization

Current status, challenges, and policy suggestions for coalbed methane industry development in China: A review

Forecasting China's natural gas external dependence under the “Dual Carbon” goals by a new grey model

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