Gender and the Business Cycle: A Stocks and Flows Analysis of the US and UK Labour Market States

Razzu, Giovanni; Singleton, Carl

doi:10.2139/ssrn.2686266

Cited by 1 publication

(5 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…Also, as shown by Harvey & Jaeger (1993), the most common detrending method, the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter with standard quarterly smoothing parameter matches almost exactly the less restricted Unobserved Components Model (UCM) decomposition, within which the HP filter can be nested, for US output and employment series, but this is not the case for the UK. See also Razzu & Singleton (2014) for a demonstration of this.…”

Section: Table 2 and Figurementioning

confidence: 96%

“…This suggests that the immediate greater effect of the business cycle on male employment outcomes drives the UK gender cycle, and that cumulatively a recessionary period will have a larger negative effect on male outcomes (see also Razzu & Singleton, 2014). In figure 11 we compare the results using forecast errors at a ten quarter horizon from our main specification with estimations using restricted sample periods.…”

Section: Table 2 and Figurementioning

confidence: 99%

“…2 Peiro et al (2012) estimate directly a relationship between changes in unemployment rates and a cyclical component of GDP for the UK and US, finding that the business cycle extends its influence on unemployment rates over several quarters, and does so more intensely for men than women. Razzu & Singleton (2014) extend this analysis further by decomposing a gendered output gap identity, and estimate an implied vector autoregression (VAR) model comprising cyclical components of GDP and labour market outcomes for the US and UK from 1948 and 1971 respectively. The cumulative response to the business cycle of the male unemployment rate is shown to be significantly stronger in both countries over this period.…”

Section: Describing Gender Gaps and The Business Cyclementioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, the authors also find that this job search activity did not tend to increase the likelihood of these individuals moving into employment. Razzu & Singleton (2014) also consider the possibility of an added worker effect at the macro level, using labour market flows data for the UK, and conclude that there is scope for an added worker effect to explain some of the gender pattern in outcomes. The likelihood of rejoining the labour market through unemployment is generally higher for women than men.…”

Section: Candidate Explanationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The gender employment rate gap is pro-cyclical. The jobs growth of men appears to be more sensitive to the economic cycle than for women (Peiro et al, 2012;Razzu & Singleton, 2014). The Great Recession has certainly reminded us of the importance of understanding the behaviour of labour markets over the business cycle.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Segregation and Gender Gaps through the UK's Great Recession

Razzu

Singleton

2015

SSRN Journal

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Gender gaps in work respond to the business cycle. Although there are many potential explanations, this paper tests the simplest. Is this because of the extent of gender segregation in work? A counterfactual-type analysis is constructed which can account for the specific role of combined gender segregation across industry sectors and occupations that existed at the onset of the Great Recession in the UK. Gaps in employment, pay and hours worked are all studied. After accounting for the gender segregation of work at the broad sector and occupation group level, the results contradict the existing narrative that men's employment has been more harshly affected by the recession than women's employment: gender segregation accounts for over two and a half times the actual fall in the gender gap between 2007 and 2011. Results for pay and hours are more mixed. Gender segregation accounts for some of the fall in the pay gap, but does not explain the decline in the hours gap, nor the relatively greater rise in part-time work among men since 2007.

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Section: Table 2 and Figurementioning

confidence: 96%

Section: Table 2 and Figurementioning

confidence: 99%