Gender Identity in the 2021 Census of England and Wales: How a Flawed Question Created Spurious Data

Abstract

The 2021 Census of England and Wales was one of the first in the world to ascertain the gender identity of an entire population. This article argues that its results are implausible with regard to geography, language, education, ethnicity, and religion. The results contradict data on referrals to gender clinics and signatures on a pro-transgender petition. The results are also internally inconsistent when the various categories of gender identity are correlated across localities, and when compared with sexual orientation. The spurious results were produced by a flawed question, which originated with a transgender campaigning organization. The question evidently confused a substantial number of respondents who erroneously declared their gender identity to differ from their natal sex. Confusion is manifested in the overrepresentation of people lacking English proficiency in the most suspect gender categories. These findings demonstrate how a faulty question can distort our apprehension of the social world.