2016
DOI: 10.1007/s10994-016-5588-2
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Generalization bounds for non-stationary mixing processes

Abstract: This paper presents the first generalization bounds for time series prediction with a non-stationary mixing stochastic process. We prove Rademacher complexity learning bounds for both average-path generalization with non-stationary β-mixing processes and path-dependent generalization with non-stationary φ-mixing processes. Our guarantees are expressed in terms of β-or φ-mixing coefficients and a natural measure of discrepancy between training and target distributions. They admit as special cases previous Radem… Show more

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Cited by 50 publications
(41 citation statements)
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“…They also prove that their rate is minimax optimal. More recently, several authors [34,40,43] have studied generalization bounds for non i.i.d. data, extending the standard learning theory guarantees for independent data.…”
Section: Related Workmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…They also prove that their rate is minimax optimal. More recently, several authors [34,40,43] have studied generalization bounds for non i.i.d. data, extending the standard learning theory guarantees for independent data.…”
Section: Related Workmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Note that PAC bounds for learning time series has been explored in the literature by Kuznetsov and Mohri (2017;2018). Their approach is based on covering numbers and Rademacher complexity instead of PAC-Bayes analysis, but in contrast to the current paper, Kuznetsov and Mohri's work allows for non-stationary time series.…”
Section: Related Workmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…We do not give an account here on the developments of these topics for dependent, nonstationary designs because they escape the specific purpose of the present paper. For an exposition in this direction, see [KM17] and the references therein.…”
Section: Background Results In the Literaturementioning
confidence: 99%