Generating a Probabilistic Construction Schedule

Abstract

Introduction: The design stage and preparations for construction include the development of construction schedules needed to justify the duration of construction works. Methods: Based on probabilistic scheduling, a multitude of solutions can be generated for each implementation roadmap (progress chart). These decisions can be defined as optimistic, most probable or likely, and pessimistic. Rational roadmaps are selected in accordance with benchmarking. Simple and discounted payback periods are used as frequently applied criteria included in the system of evaluating the economic effectiveness of investment projects. Based on identifying the given indicators of project evaluation, a method of designing probabilistic construction progress charts has been developed; the latter serve as the basis for devising respective organizational-technological solutions. Results: The design of optimistic, pessimistic, and most probable construction roadmaps (schedules or progress charts) enables the use of a developed model for probabilistic prognostication of future production risks affecting the delay of construction completion.