Generation expansion planning under correlated uncertainty of mass penetration renewable energy sources

Abstract

This study presents a methodology for generation expansion planning (GEP) under the presence of uncertainty of multiple renewable energy sources (RES). Both long‐ and short‐term uncertainties are represented and incorporated within the proposed GEP model. The long‐term RES uncertainty is simulated by the annual variation of the capacity credit. The short‐term uncertainty is modelled by means of the net power based on the hourly variation of RES output power and load curve. The proposed GEP model is solved through three steps. In the first step, the proposed robust GEP model is solved considering the long‐term uncertainty of the multiple RES. Short‐term uncertainty is considered when solving the GEP model in the second step. In the last step, the robustness of the obtained robust GEP model results is verified by checking the reliability criteria. A new correlated polyhedral uncertainty set is introduced considering the correlation between the different RES uncertain coefficients through its correlation matrix. Different GEP results are presented for different uncertainty scenarios. The results demonstrate that considering the correlation among uncertain coefficients provides insight for effects of correlation on investment strategies. Reserve margin is adapted to cope with uncertainty impact. Reliability criteria are verified by DIgSILENT generation adequacy tool.

A New Robust Bidding Approach for Wind Power Producers Participating in Competitive Power Markets with Correlated Market Prices

“…Where t  is the nominal value and tt denotes the deviation term from the actual price. As mentioned in (7), the perturbations considered in the uncertainty set proposed by Pachamanova [36] are assumed to be unbounded so that it leads to over conservative solutions. To decrease the over conservatism level of the solutions, Jalilvandnejad et al ˆÂ…”

“…They utilized the robust optimization approach to mitigate the risk of the energy market price uncertainty. Abdalla, Adma and Ahmed [7] considered the correlation existing between the renewable resources uncertainties to determine the generation expansion planning methodology based on a new correlated polyhedral uncertainty set. Zhang et al [8] established an uncertainty set and proposed a robust dispatching method to cover the uncertainty of the value of the power proposed by wind power producers.…”

A data‐driven inertia adequacy‐based approach for sustainable expansion planning in distributed generations‐penetrated power grids

“…Several research works addressed the GEP and TEP problems in power systems considering different sources of uncertainties [31][32][33]. A robust GEP formulation considering the uncertainty of renewable energy sources (RESs) is discussed in [34]. While the long-term RES uncertainties are formulated using the annual variation of the capacity credit, the short-term uncertainty is simulated using the hourly RES power output.…”

Robust generation expansion planning considering high penetration renewable energies uncertainty

“…The RES uncertainties are represented through the variation of the renewable output energy and incorporated into the GEP model through a FOR to reduce the RES capacity credit. Reference 33 studied the impact of the correlation between the different renewable plants' uncertainties on the planning results. The correlated uncertainties are incorporated into the planning model through a devolved correlated polyhedral uncertainty set.…”

“…The correlated uncertainties are incorporated into the planning model through a devolved correlated polyhedral uncertainty set. References 2,33 proposed a reserve margin as an appropriate solution to cope with the uncertainty problem. The previously mentioned efforts 2,29‐33 proposed only the reserve margin solution to cope with the uncertainty problem.…”