Generation time and seasonal migration explain variation in spatial population synchrony across European bird species

Martin, Ellen C.; Hansen, Brage Bremset; Lee, Aline Magdalena; Herfindal, Ivar

doi:10.1101/2023.01.30.526164

Cited by 3 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 72 publications

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Section: Co N Fli C T O F I Nte R E S T S Tate M E Ntmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Novel data code available from the FigShare http://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.23617197 (Martin et al, 2023). Datasets publicly available for download on GBIF: Norway: June 2021, from GBIF DOI: https://doi.org/10.15468/6jmw2e. Survey unit centroids provided by John Atle Kalas/NINA [personal communication]. Sweden: March 2021 from GBIF DOI: https://doi.org/10.15468/hd6w0r. …”

Section: Data Availability Statementmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Generation time and seasonal migration explain variation in spatial population synchrony across European bird species

Martin

Hansen

Lee

et al. 2023

Journal of Animal Ecology

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Spatial population synchrony is common among populations of the same species and is an important predictor of extinction risk. Despite the potential consequences for metapopulation persistence, we still largely lack understanding of what makes one species more likely to be synchronized than another given the same environmental conditions. Generally, environmental conditions in a shared environment or a species' sensitivity to the environment can explain the extent of synchrony. Populations that are closer together experience more similar fluctuations in their environments than those populations that are further apart and are therefore more synchronized. The relative importance of environmental and demographic stochasticity for population dynamics is strongly linked to species' life‐history traits, such as pace of life, which may impact population synchrony. For populations that migrate, there may be multiple environmental conditions at different locations driving synchrony. However, the importance of life history and migration tactics in determining patterns of spatial population synchrony have rarely been explored empirically. We therefore hypothesize that increasing generation time, a proxy for pace of life, would decrease spatial population synchrony and that migrants would be less synchronized than resident species. We used population abundance data on breeding birds from four countries to investigate patterns of spatial population synchrony in growth rate and abundance. We calculated the mean spatial population synchrony between log‐transformed population growth rates or log‐transformed abundances for each species and country separately. We investigated differences in synchrony across generation times in resident (n = 67), short‐distance migrant (n = 86) and long‐distance migrant (n = 39) bird species. Species with shorter generation times were more synchronized than species with longer generation times. Short‐distance migrants were more synchronized than long‐distance migrants and resident birds. Our results provide novel empirical links between spatial population synchrony and species traits known to be of key importance for population dynamics, generation time and migration tactics. We show how these different mechanisms can be combined to understand species‐specific causes of spatial population synchrony. Understanding these specific drivers of spatial population synchrony is important in the face of increasingly severe threats to biodiversity and could be key for successful future conservation outcomes.

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Section: Co N Fli C T O F I Nte R E S T S Tate M E Ntmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Data Availability Statementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Generation time and seasonal migration explain variation in spatial population synchrony across European bird species

Martin

Hansen

Lee

et al. 2023

Journal of Animal Ecology

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“…Novel code (Martin et al, 2023) to generate figures and conclusions is available in Figshare at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.23828877.…”

Section: Data Availability Statementmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of seasonal migration in spatial population synchrony

Martin,

Hansen,

Herfindal

et al. 2023

Ecology

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Spatially synchronized population dynamics are common in nature, and understanding their drivers is key for predicting species persistence. A main driver of synchrony between populations of the same species is shared environmental conditions, which cause populations closer together in space to be more synchronized than populations further from one another. Most theoretical and empirical understanding of this driver considers resident species. For migratory species, however, the degree of spatial autocorrelation in the environment may change across seasons and vary by their geographic location along the migratory route or on a nonbreeding ground, complicating the synchronizing effect of the environment. Migratory species show a variety of different strategies in how they disperse to and aggregate on nonbreeding grounds, ranging from completely shared nonbreeding grounds to multiple different ones. Depending on the sensitivity to environmental conditions off the breeding grounds, we can expect that migration and overwintering strategies will impact the extent and spatial pattern of population synchrony on the breeding grounds. Here, we use spatial population‐dynamic modelling and simulations to investigate the relationship between seasonal environmental autocorrelation and migration characteristics. Our model shows that the effects of environmental autocorrelation experienced off the breeding ground on population synchrony depend on the number and size of nonbreeding grounds, and how populations migrate in relation to neighboring populations. When populations migrated to multiple nonbreeding grounds, spatial population synchrony increased with increasing environmental autocorrelation between nonbreeding grounds. Populations which migrated to the same place as near neighbors had higher synchrony at short distances than populations which migrated randomly. However, synchrony declined less across increasing distances for random migration strategy. The differences in synchrony between migration strategies were most pronounced when the environmental autocorrelation between nonbreeding grounds was low. These results show the importance of considering migration when studying spatial population synchrony and predicting patterns of synchrony and population viability under global environmental change. Climate change and habitat loss and fragmentation may cause range shifts and changes in migratory strategies, as well as changes in the mean and spatial autocorrelation of the environment, which can alter the scale and patterns observed in spatial population synchrony.

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“…Despite the synchronizing effect of environmental autocorrelation on population dynamics, different species present at the same locations and exposed to the same environmental synchrony do not always exhibit the same degree of synchrony in their population cofluctuations (Marquez et al, 2019, Martin et al, 2023). Different responses to the environment and, thereby, the environmental synchrony are often attributed to life history traits, rendering species-specific sensitivity to changes in the environment (Tedesco & Hugueny, 2006, Chevalier et al, 2014, Hansen et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These taxa are also generally widely distributed, making it possible to study the same species spread across different environments (Jones et al, 2007). Based on Moran’s theorem, we predicted that species of birds and insects in environments with higher synchrony would have overall higher spatial population synchrony, but that the effect of synchronized environments would depend on species’ life history traits (Martin et al 2023, Marquez et al, 2019). More specifically, we expected that species more sensitive to environmental stochasticity, such as fast-lived species (Sæther et al, 2013), or specialist species (Dumoulin & Armsworth, 2022), would be more highly synchronized and more influenced by environmental synchrony.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How do life history traits influence the environment’s effect on population synchrony? Insights from European birds and insects

Martin,

Hansen,

Lee

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Populations closer together in space are more likely to experience shared environmental fluctuations. This correlation in experienced environmental conditions is the main driver of spatial population synchrony, defined as the tendency for geographically separate populations of the same species to exhibit parallel fluctuations in abundance over time. Moran’s theorem states that spatially distinct populations are expected to show the same synchrony in their population dynamics as the synchrony in their environment. However, this is rarely the case in the wild, and the population synchrony of different species inhabiting the same area is rarely similar. These species-specific differences in how the environment synchronizes populations can be due to life history traits that make some species more susceptible to environmental stochasticity, such as reduced mobility or faster pace of life. In this study, we compiled long-term annual abundance datasets on European birds and insects (Lepidopterasp. andBombussp.) to identify how environmental synchrony (i.e., positively spatially correlated fluctuations in the environment, also called the Moran effect) affects species population synchrony. As expected, the environment synchronized populations of both birds and insects. Populations experiencing correlated fluctuations in precipitation or temperature had higher synchrony in annual population growth rates. Birds were more strongly synchronized by temperature, while precipitation was a stronger driver of synchrony in insects. In birds, species with short generation times had a stronger synchronizing effect of the environment compared to species with long generation times. Moreover, in birds the effects of synchrony in the environment also depended on movement propensity, with a positive impact for resident and short-distance migration species. In insects, annual population synchrony was affected by species movement propensity and dietary niche breadth, but these traits did not modify the effects of environmental synchrony. Our study provides empirical support for the prediction that spatial correlation in population dynamics is more influenced by environmental stochasticity for life histories with lower mobility and faster pace of life, but only in birds. By quantifying spatial population synchrony across different levels of environmental synchrony and life history traits, our study improves the understanding of the Moran effect as well as factors that drive population persistence in the face of environmental change.

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Generation time and seasonal migration explain variation in spatial population synchrony across European bird species

Cited by 3 publications

References 72 publications

Generation time and seasonal migration explain variation in spatial population synchrony across European bird species

Generation time and seasonal migration explain variation in spatial population synchrony across European bird species

The role of seasonal migration in spatial population synchrony

How do life history traits influence the environment’s effect on population synchrony? Insights from European birds and insects

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