Epidemiological and genetic association studies show that genetics play an important role in the attainment of education. Here, we investigate the effect of this genetic component on the reproductive history of 109,120 Icelanders and the consequent impact on the gene pool over time. We show that an educational attainment polygenic score, POLY EDU, constructed from results of a recent study is associated with delayed reproduction (P < 10 −100) and fewer children overall. The effect is stronger for women and remains highly significant after adjusting for educational attainment. Based on 129,808 Icelanders born between 1910 and 1990, we find that the average POLY EDU has been declining at a rate of ∼0.010 standard units per decade, which is substantial on an evolutionary timescale. Most importantly, because POLY EDU only captures a fraction of the overall underlying genetic component the latter could be declining at a rate that is two to three times faster. selection | educational attainment | genes | fertility | sequence variants E pidemiological studies have estimated that the genetic component of educational attainment can account for as much as 40% of the trait variance (1). Recent meta-analyses (2, 3) yielded sequence variants contributing to the underlying genetic component. A negative correlation between educational attainment and number of children has been observed in many populations (4-7). A recent study of ∼20,000 genotyped Americans born between 1931 and 1953 provided direct evidence that the genetic propensity for educational attainment is associated with reduced fertility (8, 9), supporting previously postulated notions (10) that the population average of the genetic propensity for educational attainment and related traits must be declining. Here, using a population-wide sample that is both much larger and covers a substantially greater time span, and with additional auxiliary information, we aim to estimate the change of the genetic propensity of educational attainment in the Icelandic population over the last few decades, starting with an in-depth investigation of the relationship between a measurable genetic component of educational attainment and various aspects of reproduction (11)(12)(13)(14).
ResultsThe number of living Icelanders is ∼317,000 (Fig. S1). A genealogical database of Icelanders (15-17) that is very close to complete for individuals born after 1910 (Materials and Methods) is used in this study. Probands used for the genetic analyses here are limited to those with both parents and all four grandparents listed in the genealogy. For the fertility studies, only children who survived their first year are counted. The first step was to use results from a recent genome-wide association study (GWAS) of educational attainment (3) to determine the per-locus allele-specific weightings of 620,000 markers used to calculate a polygenic score (18,19), POLY EDU (see Materials and Methods for details on polygenic score construction). After excluding the Icelandic cohorts in the GWAS to avoid confou...