BackgroundRadiation-induced pneumonitis (RP) is a non-negligible and sometimes life-threatening complication in patients with thoracic radiation. We initially aimed to ascertain the predict value of acute radiation-induced esophagitis (SARE, grade≥2) to symptomatic RP (SRP, grade≥2) among thoracic cancer patients receiving radiotherapy. Based on that, we also established a novel nomogram model to provide individualized risk assessment for SRP.MethodsPatients with thoracic cancer who were treated with thoracic radiation from Jan 2018 to Jan 2019 in Shandong Cancer Hospital and Institute were enrolled prospectively. All patients were followed up during and after radiotherapy (RT) to observe the appearance of esophagitis and pneumonitis. Variables were analyzed by univariate and multivariate analysis using the logistic regression model, and a nomogram model was established to predict SRP by "R" version 3.6.0.ResultsA total of 123 patients were enrolled (64 esophageal cancer, 57 lung cancer and 2 mediastinal cancer) in this study prospectively. RP grades of 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 occurred in 29, 57, 31, 0, 3 and 3 patients, respectively. SRP appeared in 37 patients (30.1%). In univariate analysis, SARE was shown to be a significant predictive factor for SRP (P < 0.001), with the sensitivity 91.9% and the negative predictive value 93.5%. The incidence of SRP in different grades of ARE were as follows: Grade 0-1: 6.5%; Grade 2: 36.9%; Grade 3: 80.0%; Grade 4: 100%. Besides that, the dosimetric factors considering total lung mean dose, total lung V5, V20, ipsilateral lung mean dose, ipsilateral lung V5, and mean esophagus dose were correlated with SRP (all P < 0.005) by univariate analysis. The incidence of SRP was significantly higher in patients whose symptoms of RP appeared early. SARE (HR 34.408, P = 0.001), mean esophagus dose and ipsilateral mean lung dose were still significant in multivariate analysis, and they were included to build a predictive nomogram model for SRP.ConclusionsSARE was an easy index that can reflect patients’ radiosensitivity visually, which could be an applicable predictor for SRP in patients receiving thoracic radiation. And the nomogram could assist in accurate prediction to SRP in clinic.