Geo-Statistical Characterization of Annual Maximum Daily Rainfall Variability in Semi-Arid Regions

Abstract

In the Wadi Cheliff basin (Algeria), a 48-year (1971–2018) time series of annual maximum daily rainfall was studied to identify and quantify trends observed at 150 rain gauges. Initial trends in annual maximum daily rainfall were determined using the Mann–Kendall test, with a significance level of 95%. The slope or increase/decrease in the annual maximum daily precipitation was assessed using the Theil–Sen estimator. A running trend analysis was then performed to quantify the effects of different time windows on trend detection. Finally, to assess the different spatial distribution of annual maximum daily precipitation during the observation period, spatial analysis was performed using a geo-statistical approach for the whole observation period and at different decades. The results showed a predominant negative trend in annual maximum daily rainfall (about 11% of rain gauges at a 95% significance level), mainly affecting the north-eastern area of the catchment. The spatial distribution of annual maximum daily rainfall showed high rainfall variability in the period of 1970–1980, with a decrease in the decades of 1980–1990 and 2010–2017 when the maximum values were more evenly distributed across the region.