Geographic distribution of two Montivipera taxa using ecological niche modeling

Kurnaz, Muammer

doi:10.1007/s12038-023-00333-7

Cited by 4 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…Additionally, daily and annual temperature cycles have also contributed to the potential distribution pattern as well as the seasonal factors, especially the driest seasonal precipitation dynamics. This overall bioclimatic and topographic pattern is observed in many herptile species in and nearby the study area (Naumov et Kurnaz and Eroğlu 2021;Şahin et al 2022a, b;Vaissi 2022;Kurnaz 2023).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 55%

Range dynamics of Walterinnesia morgani (Serpentes, Elapidae) during climatic oscillations in Iran

Gholamifard,

Şahin

2023

Herpetozoa

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Reptiles have a crucial part in maintaining global biodiversity and the functioning of dynamic ecosystems, owing to their ecological roles and functions. Nevertheless, these organisms are susceptible to human-induced disruptions and the deterioration of their habitats, leading to their categorization as the third most endangered group of vertebrates on a global scale. Understanding the spatial distribution of reptiles is crucial due to their often specific habitat needs and limited vagility. Morgan’s black cobra (Walterinnesia morgani) is a secretive venomous snake species that has thus far received little attention in Iranian scientific literature. The aim of the present study was to determine the existing distribution pattern of the cobra and to speculate on how climatic changes might affect it. Maximum entropy modeling was used to examine a dataset consisting of 16 occurrence records gleaned from field observations and the literature. The niche of the species was predicted using current and future climate change forecasts and bioclimatic and topographical characteristics. The models predicted a future reduction in the wide distribution region of W. morgani in southern and western Iran. It was discovered that climatic factors like temperature range, precipitation dynamics, and river proximity all played a key role in shaping the pattern of distribution. The predicted suitable areas for W. morgani were dependent on water sources; however, future scenarios showed a decline in suitable habitats. This study underscores the importance of conservation efforts in light of the potential implications of climate change on this species. To further understand the range shifts and adaptive strategies of the species, further study of its ecology and dispersal dynamics is required.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 55%

Range dynamics of Walterinnesia morgani (Serpentes, Elapidae) during climatic oscillations in Iran

Gholamifard,

Şahin

2023

Herpetozoa

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“…The ecological niche is defined as the minimum threshold of habitat required by a species within an ecosystem and can be quantified by the niche breadth [32]. The climate niche overlap of a species can be understood as a reflection of its survival strategy to cope with GCC.…”

Section: Climate Ecological Niche Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Climate Change on the Distribution of Suitable Habitats and Ecological Niche for Trollius Wildflowers in Ili River Valley, Tacheng, Altay Prefecture

Fan,

Luo

2024

Plants

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Xinjiang in China is distinguished by its distinctive regional landscape and high ecological sensitivity. Trollius wildflowers represent a unique and iconic element of the mountain flower landscape in Xinjiang. However, their populations are predominantly distributed in mountainous areas, making them susceptible to climate change. Despite this, the impacts of climate change on the distribution of suitable habitats and ecological niche differentiation for Trollius wildflowers have rarely been quantified. Consequently, simulations were conducted using the R-optimized MaxEnt model to predict the suitable habitat distribution of Trollius wildflowers. This was based on the occurrence data and environmental variables for the four species of Trollius (T. altaicus, T. asiaticus, T. dschungaricus, and T. lilacinus) that exist in the study area. The simulation was conducted over a period of time, beginning with the past glacial period and extending to the present, and then to the future (2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) under multiple scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). The simulation of suitable habitats enabled the measurement of the ecological niche breadth and differentiation. The results demonstrate that the model predictions are precisely accurate, with AUC values exceeding 0.9. Annual mean temperature (Bio1), isothermality (Bio3), and precipitation in the warmest quarter (Bio18) are the dominant climate variables, in addition to vegetation, elevation, and soil factors. The proportion of suitable habitats for Trollius wildflowers varies considerably over time, from 0.14% to 70.97%. The majority of habitat loss or gain occurs at the edges of mountains, while stable habitats are concentrated in the core of the mountains. The gravity center of suitable habitats also shifts with spatial transfer, with the shifts mainly occurring in a northeasterly–southwesterly direction. The SSP1-2.6 scenario results in the sustained maintenance of habitats, whereas the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios present challenges to the conservation of habitats. The threshold of ecological niche breadth for Trollius wildflowers is subject to fluctuations, while the ecological niche differentiation also varies. The study aims to examine the evolution of the habitat and ecological niche of Trollius wildflowers in Xinjiang under climate change. The findings will provide theoretical support for delineating the conservation area, clarify the scope of mountain flower tourism development and protection of mountain flower resources, and promote the sustainable development of ecotourism and effective utilization of territorial space in Xinjiang.

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“…Despite this, individual models of similar taxa may provide insight into the potential temporal biogeography of our study system. Studies that created ecological niche models (ENMs) of snake species suggest both increases and decreases in suitable habitat under climate change conditions and there does not seem to be a consensus among ectothermic reptiles (González‐Fernández et al., 2018; Kalboussi & Achour, 2018; Kirk et al., 2021; Kurnaz, 2023; Lourenço‐de‐Moraes et al., 2019; Piquet et al., 2021; Saptoka et al., 2021). Similarly, models of small mammal distributions suggest different responses to climate change depending on the species and modeling method (Baltensperger & Huettmann, 2015; Mathewson et al., 2017; Morueta‐Holme et al., 2010; Riddell et al., 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The past, present, and future of predator–prey interactions in a warming world: Using species distribution modeling to forecast ectotherm–endotherm niche overlap

Hill,

Grisnik,

Hanscom

et al. 2024

Ecology and Evolution

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Climate change has the potential to disrupt species interactions across global ecosystems. Ectotherm–endotherm interactions may be especially prone to this risk due to the possible mismatch between the species in physiological response and performance. However, few studies have examined how changing temperatures might differentially impact species' niches or available suitable habitat when they have very different modes of thermoregulation. An ideal system for studying this interaction is the predator–prey system. In this study, we used ecological niche modeling to characterize the niche overlap and examine biogeography in past and future climate conditions of prairie rattlesnakes (Crotalus viridis) and Ord's kangaroo rats (Dipodomys ordii), an endotherm–ectotherm pair typifying a predator–prey species interaction. Our models show a high niche overlap between these two species (D = 0.863 and I = 0.979) and further affirm similar paleoecological distributions during the last glacial maximum (LGM) and mid‐Holocene (MH). Under future climate change scenarios, we found that prairie rattlesnakes may experience a reduction in overall suitable habitat (RCP 2.6 = −1.82%, 4.5 = −4.62%, 8.5 = −7.34%), whereas Ord's kangaroo rats may experience an increase (RCP 2.6 = 9.8%, 4.5 = 11.71%, 8.5 = 8.37%). We found a shared trend of stable suitable habitat at northern latitudes but reduced suitability in southern portions of the range, and we propose future monitoring and conservation be focused on those areas. Overall, we demonstrate a biogeographic example of how interacting ectotherm–endotherm species may have mismatched responses under climate change scenarios and the models presented here can serve as a starting point for further investigation into the biogeography of these systems.

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Geographic distribution of two Montivipera taxa using ecological niche modeling

Cited by 4 publications

References 44 publications

Range dynamics of Walterinnesia morgani (Serpentes, Elapidae) during climatic oscillations in Iran

Range dynamics of Walterinnesia morgani (Serpentes, Elapidae) during climatic oscillations in Iran

Impacts of Climate Change on the Distribution of Suitable Habitats and Ecological Niche for Trollius Wildflowers in Ili River Valley, Tacheng, Altay Prefecture

The past, present, and future of predator–prey interactions in a warming world: Using species distribution modeling to forecast ectotherm–endotherm niche overlap

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