Abstract. Intrusion of deep saline waters into freshwater aquifers does not
only endanger the regional drinking water supply, but also rivers and
stagnant waters and their fauna are threatened by salinisation. The
upwelling of highly mineralised saline waters in large parts of the North
German Basin is favoured by the presence of Elsterian glacial erosion
windows in the Lower Oligocene Rupelian Clay, the most important hydraulic
confining unit in this region. Lower precipitation rates and decreasing
groundwater levels as a consequence of global climate change, but also
anthropogenic interventions, such as increasing extraction rates or the use
of the deep geologic subsurface as a reservoir, decrease the pressure
potential in the freshwater column and may possibly accelerate this
primarily geogenic salinisation process in the coming years. Density-driven
flow and transport modelling was performed in the scope of the present study
to investigate the upwelling mechanisms of deep saline waters across
Quaternary window sediments in the Rupelian. Simulation results show that
the interactions between the groundwater recharge rate and anthropogenic
interventions such as extraction rates of drinking water wells or the
utilisation of the deep subsurface, have a significant influence on the
groundwater pressure potential in the freshwater aquifer and associated
saltwater upwelling. In all scenarios, salinisation is most severe in the
sediments of the erosion windows. Hydraulically conductive faults also
intensify salinisation if located nearside erosion windows or induce a more
distributed or localised salinisation in aquifers with drinking water
relevance in areas that do not intersect with erosion windows. A decline in
groundwater recharge thereby significantly favours upward saltwater
migration. The simulation scenarios further show that a decrease in
groundwater recharge also results in freshwater salinisation occurring up to
10 years earlier, which underlines the need for waterworks to initiate
effective countermeasures quickly and in time.