Geographical variation in species' population responses to changes in temperature and precipitation

Pearce‐Higgins, James W.; Ockendon, Nancy; Baker, D. James; Carr, Jamie; White, Elizabeth C.; Almond, Rosamunde; Amano, Tatsuya; Bertram, Esther; Bradbury, Richard B.; Bradley, Cassie; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Doswald, Nathalie; Foden, Wendy; Gill, David; Green, Rhys E.; Sutherland, William J.; Tanner, E. V. J.

doi:10.1098/rspb.2015.1561

Cited by 61 publications

(56 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…This also implies that short‐term studies may be inadequate as a means of uncovering differences in demographic parameters between migratory strategies. Similar results have been found by Pearce‐Higgins and colleagues (Pearce‐Higgins et al, ), whose recommendations concerning the importance of long‐term studies as a means of determining impacts of climate change we echo.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

Fitness consequences of different migratory strategies in partially migratory populations: A multi‐taxa meta‐analysis

Buchan

Gilroy

Catry

et al. 2019

Journal of Animal Ecology

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Partial migration—wherein migratory and non‐migratory individuals exist within the same population—represents a behavioural dimorphism; for it to persist over time, both strategies should yield equal individual fitness. This balance may be maintained through trade‐offs where migrants gain survival benefits by avoiding unfavourable conditions, while residents gain breeding benefits from early access to resources. There has been little overarching quantitative analysis of the evidence for this fitness balance. As migrants—especially long‐distance migrants—may be particularly vulnerable to environmental change, it is possible that recent anthropogenic impacts could drive shifts in fitness balances within these populations. We tested these predictions using a multi‐taxa meta‐analysis. Of 2,939 reviewed studies, 23 contained suitable information for meta‐analysis, yielding 129 effect sizes. Of these, 73% (n = 94) reported higher resident fitness, 22% (n = 28) reported higher migrant fitness, and 5% (n = 7) reported equal fitness. Once weighted for precision, we found balanced fitness benefits across the entire dataset, but a consistently higher fitness of residents over migrants in birds and herpetofauna (the best‐sampled groups). Residency benefits were generally associated with survival, not breeding success, and increased with the number of years of data over which effect sizes were calculated, suggesting deviations from fitness parity are not due to sampling artefacts. A pervasive survival benefit to residency documented in recent literature could indicate that increased exposure to threats associated with anthropogenic change faced by migrating individuals may be shifting the relative fitness balance between strategies.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

Fitness consequences of different migratory strategies in partially migratory populations: A multi‐taxa meta‐analysis

Buchan

Gilroy

Catry

et al. 2019

Journal of Animal Ecology

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“…For many bird species, lagged changes in distribution and abundance in response to shifting climate conditions have been documented during nonbreeding and breeding seasons (La Sorte & Thompson ; Pearce‐Higgins et al. ; Princé & Zuckerberg ). Evidence of greater nesting success following years of high precipitation supports the rationale that wetter conditions in the year preceding breeding could promote conditions for increased grassland productivity (Rotenberry & Wiens ; Chase et al.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of temperature and precipitation on grassland bird nesting success as mediated by patch size

Zuckerberg

Ribic

McCauley

2018

Conservation Biology

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Grassland birds are declining faster than any other bird guild across North America. Shrinking ranges and population declines are attributed to widespread habitat loss and increasingly fragmented landscapes of agriculture and other land uses that are misaligned with grassland bird conservation. Concurrent with habitat loss and degradation, temperate grasslands have been disproportionally affected by climate change relative to most other terrestrial biomes. Distributions of grassland birds often correlate with gradients in climate, but few researchers have explored the consequences of weather on the demography of grassland birds inhabiting a range of grassland fragments. To do so, we modeled the effects of temperature and precipitation on nesting success rates of 12 grassland bird species inhabiting a range of grassland patches across North America (21,000 nests from 81 individual studies). Higher amounts of precipitation in the preceding year were associated with higher nesting success, but wetter conditions during the active breeding season reduced nesting success. Extremely cold or hot conditions during the early breeding season were associated with lower rates of nesting success. The direct and indirect influence of temperature and precipitation on nesting success was moderated by grassland patch size. The positive effects of precipitation in the preceding year on nesting success were strongest in relatively small grassland patches and had little effect in large patches. Conversely, warm temperatures reduced nesting success in small grassland patches but increased nesting success in large patches. Mechanisms underlying these differences may be patch-size-induced variation in microclimates and predator activity. Although the exact cause is unclear, large grassland patches, the most common metric of grassland conservation, appears to moderate the effects of weather on grassland-bird demography and could be an effective component of climate-change adaptation.

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“…Walther et al ., ; Parmesan & Yohe, ; Root et al ., ; Parmesan, ; Chen et al ., ; Poloczanska et al . ; Lenoir & Svenning, ; Pearce‐Higgins et al ., ; Brown et al ., ). These reviews are highly cited – often garnering many thousands of citations each – indicating that they can be highly influential in setting the direction of policy and research.…”

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confidence: 97%

Most ‘global’ reviews of species’ responses to climate change are not truly global

Feeley

Stroud

Perez

2016

Diversity and Distributions

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It is critical that we understand the effects of climate change on natural systems if we ever hope to predict or mitigate consequent changes in diversity and ecosystem function. In order to identify coherent 'fingerprints' of climate change across Earth's terrestrial and marine ecosystems, various reviews have been conducted to synthesize studies of climate change impacts on individual species, assemblages and systems. These reviews help to make information about climate change impacts accessible for researchers as well as for the general public and policymakers. As such, these reviews can be highly influential in setting the direction of policy and research. Unfortunately, due to limited data availability, the majority of reviews of climate change impacts suffer from severe taxonomic and geographic biases. In particular, tropical and marine systems are grossly underrepresented, as are plants and endothermic animals. These biases may preclude a comprehensive understanding of how climate change is affecting Earth's natural systems at a global scale. In order to advance our understanding of climate change impacts on species and ecosystems, we need to first assess the types of data that are and are not available and then correct these biases through directed studies and initiatives.

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Geographical variation in species' population responses to changes in temperature and precipitation

Cited by 61 publications

References 43 publications

Fitness consequences of different migratory strategies in partially migratory populations: A multi‐taxa meta‐analysis

Fitness consequences of different migratory strategies in partially migratory populations: A multi‐taxa meta‐analysis

Effects of temperature and precipitation on grassland bird nesting success as mediated by patch size

Most ‘global’ reviews of species’ responses to climate change are not truly global

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