Geopolitical Risk Index for Nigeria

Salisu, Afees A.; Salisu, Sulaiman

doi:10.2139/ssrn.4539803

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“…We calculate the monthly GPR index from January 2012 to December 2022 by counting the number of articles related to geopolitical events. Similar to [7,20], we extracted relevant news articles from ten notable newspapers mentioning geopolitical events. These newspapers include Vanguard, This Day, The Punch, the Guardian, Independent Nigeria, Business Day, Daily Trust, Daily Champion, Nigerian Tribune, and P. M. News.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Crude Oil Market Volatility and Macroeconomic Conditions: Empirical Evidence from Nigeria

Musa

2024

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This study aims to investigate the relationship between the volatility of the crude oil market and the macroeconomic conditions in Nigeria. The author used the methods of the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model in conjunction with the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) to determine the extent of volatility using a monthly dataset from January 2012 to December 2022. The author regressed the crude oil price volatility index on Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) production quotas, conflicts, GDP growth rate, exchange rate and inflation. The results indicate that oil price volatility relates negatively to GDP, implying that the volatility of crude oil prices dampens growth in Nigeria. The paper concludes that rising oil prices heighten inflation, depreciate the exchange rate and depress growth in Nigeria. To hedge against oil price volatility, the paper recommends that the Nigerian government adopt policy measures that would increase energy efficiency and reduce the country’s dependency on oil exports through diversification in other related productive sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Crude Oil Market Volatility and Macroeconomic Conditions: Empirical Evidence from Nigeria

Musa

2024

RoBES

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Geopolitical Risk Index for Nigeria

Cited by 1 publication

References 0 publications

Analysis of Crude Oil Market Volatility and Macroeconomic Conditions: Empirical Evidence from Nigeria

Analysis of Crude Oil Market Volatility and Macroeconomic Conditions: Empirical Evidence from Nigeria

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