Geospatial modelling of the prevalence and changing distribution of frailty in Australia – 2011 to 2027

Abstract

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General practice access in regional and remote Australia for ageing populations

“…This study has used 60 km service catchments around GP locations to examine the geographic relationship between the increasing older and frail populations (Taylor et al, 2019) and GP service locations in non‐metropolitan SA and WA. The aim has been to assess if gaps in service provision could be identified.…”

“…Often, this difference is partly attributed to disparities in access to primary health care (Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, 2017; Duckett, Breadon, & Ginnivan, 2013). Rapid increases in the number of those aged 65 and older in non‐metropolitan regions (Taylor et al, 2019) is likely to further exacerbate geographic access issues because older people need and use health services more often than younger people do, yet are often constrained by reduced mobility and a lack of available and frequent public transport (Lange & Norman, 2018). This lack of geographic access to health services is particularly pertinent for members of the frail older population (Dent et al, 2016) and becomes critical given projected increases in the numbers of people who are frail (Taylor et al, 2019).…”

“…Frailty is a state of increased vulnerability to adverse health outcomes (Collard, Boter, Schoevers, & Voshaar, 2012), is not an inevitable consequence of ageing (Arendts et al, 2017) and, with appropriate health care, is treatable and preventable (Cameron et al, 2013; Fairhall et al, 2008). In Australia, national projected frailty estimates (Taylor et al, 2019) indicate that frail populations aged 65 years or over outside greater capital city statistical areas (GCCSAs) will increase rapidly in number from 160,000 in 2016 to 233,000 people by 2027. Outside their greater capital city areas of Adelaide and Perth, South Australia (SA) and Western Australia (WA) are each projected to have frail populations of 12,000 and prefrail populations over 45,000 by 2027, accounting for more than half of the population aged 65 years or more in these regional and remote areas if frailty prevalence remains at present levels (Taylor et al, 2019).…”

“…In Australia, national projected frailty estimates (Taylor et al, 2019) indicate that frail populations aged 65 years or over outside greater capital city statistical areas (GCCSAs) will increase rapidly in number from 160,000 in 2016 to 233,000 people by 2027. Outside their greater capital city areas of Adelaide and Perth, South Australia (SA) and Western Australia (WA) are each projected to have frail populations of 12,000 and prefrail populations over 45,000 by 2027, accounting for more than half of the population aged 65 years or more in these regional and remote areas if frailty prevalence remains at present levels (Taylor et al, 2019). Providing primary health services to prevent and better manage frailty will help older people remain in their own homes as long as possible, which may also lead to reduced health care and social care costs (Comans et al, 2016).…”

Structuring a conceptual model for cost-effectiveness analysis of frailty interventions

“…With no effective interventions, frailty is a progressive condition typically transitioning from lesser to greater states of the condition [9]. This is an important issue given the projected growth in the number of people living with frailty [10]. Emerging evidence suggest that timely interventions can delay frailty progression or increase the likelihood of transitioning to less severe states [11].…”