Geostatistical Analysis of the Spatial Correlation between Territorial Anthropization and Flooding Vulnerability: Application to the DANA Phenomenon in a Mediterranean Watershed

Abstract

Climate change is making intense DANA (depresión aislada en niveles altos) type rains a more frequent phenomenon in Mediterranean basins. This trend, combined with the transformation of the territory derived from diffuse anthropization processes, has created an explosive cocktail for many coastal towns due to flooding events. To evaluate this problem and the impact of its main guiding parameters, a geostatistical analysis of the territory based on GIS indicators and an NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) analysis is developed. The assessment of the validity of a proposed methodology is applied to the case study of the Campo de Cartagena watershed located around the Mar Menor, a Mediterranean coastal lagoon in Southeastern Spain. This area has suffered three catastrophic floods derived from the DANA phenomenon between 2016 and 2019. The results show that apart from the effects derived from climate change, the real issue that amplifies the damage caused by floods is the diffuse anthropization process in the area, which has caused the loss of the natural hydrographic network that traditionally existed in the basin.

Diffuse Anthropization Impacts in Vulnerable Protected Areas: Comparative Analysis of the Spatial Correlation between Land Transformation and Ecological Deterioration of Three Wetlands in Spain

“…The structure of the territory must be considered both at the level of uses and the terrain orography. All those uses included in Corine Land Cover categories that generate direct or indirect anthropogenic impacts on protected areas may be included [46]. [35,38,42] ISPRS Int.…”

“…In estuarine seaside protected areas and coastal lagoons formed from dune ridges or mangroves, coastal infrastructures such as ports or breakwaters and other anthropogenic elements that generate impacts on the sedimentary dynamics of the wetlands are considered [50]. [38,39,42] areas may be included [46].…”

Urban policies as a factor of vulnerability to flooding in Mediterranean urban areas: retrospective spatial analysis of the case study of the Region of Murcia

“…When studying the current urban planning models of the three municipalities, anal-25 yses using GIS-based indicators of the National System of Cartography of Floodable Areas 26 show that the urban flooding vulnerability level is too high (Figures 4, 5 and 6). As de-27 scribed by other authors [5], the results show how some errors in urban planning have 28 systematically contributed to the increase in the risk of flooding in urban areas in which 29 it is currently very difficult to solve the problems created. These analyses can also highlight whether it is necessary to implement measures for 1 the mitigation of flood risk and damages within models to enable and 2 resilient urban planning the perspective of the new European Union Adaptation Strategy [5], that sets out how the can adapt to the unavoidable impacts of climate 4 change and become climate resilient by 2050.…”

“…As de-27 scribed by other authors [5], the results show how some errors in urban planning have 28 systematically contributed to the increase in the risk of flooding in urban areas in which 29 it is currently very difficult to solve the problems created. These analyses can also highlight whether it is necessary to implement measures for 1 the mitigation of flood risk and damages within models to enable and 2 resilient urban planning the perspective of the new European Union Adaptation Strategy [5], that sets out how the can adapt to the unavoidable impacts of climate 4 change and become climate resilient by 2050. This strategy recognizes territorial manage-5 ment and urban planning regulations as the most appropriate framework in which cli-6 mate resilience must be inscribed.…”

Analysis of the relationship between coastal development and the alteration of beach shorelines: a retrospective view based on spatial indicators

“…To analyze the level of correlation between the two types of parameters 2 scribed in the previous sections, a geostatistical analysis will be used [4]. This analysis will 3 us to from a spatial what are the behavior patterns of the 4 suffered by the coastal territory over time, on the various characteristics of 5 creation and transformation of port areas.…”