Geostatistical distribution modelling of two invasive crayfish across dendritic stream networks

Filipe, Ana Filipa; Quaglietta, Lorenzo; Ferreira, Mário B.; Magalhães, María Filomena; Beja, Pedro

doi:10.1007/s10530-017-1492-3

Cited by 28 publications

(56 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…) or next‐generation species distribution models (Filipe et al. ; Ver Hoef et al. ) to further reduce remaining uncertainties and provide decision makers with ever more precise information.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Scenarios developed from the database provide spatially comprehensive thermal information that has contributed to an improved understanding of salmon migrations (Westley et al 2015;Palmer 2017), locations susceptible to nonnative species invasions (Al-Chokhachy et al 2016;Isaak et al 2016aIsaak et al , 2016bHowell, in press), and parameterization of distribution models that predict locations of climate refuge streams (Isaak et al 2015;Young et al 2016). As the NorWeST database and scenarios are periodically updated and improved, they could be used in development of spatially explicit, high-resolution behavioral and bioenergetic models that encompass the full suite of freshwater salmon habitats and life stages (Honea et al 2016;Crozier et al 2017) or next-generation species distribution models (Filipe et al 2017;Ver Hoef et al 2018) to further reduce remaining uncertainties and provide decision makers with ever more precise information.…”

Section: Adaptive Responsesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Global Warming of Salmon and Trout Rivers in the Northwestern U.S.: Road to Ruin or Path Through Purgatory?

et al. 2018

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Large rivers constitute small portions of drainage networks but provide important migratory habitats and fisheries for salmon and trout when and where temperatures are sufficiently cold. Management and conservation of coldwater fishes in the current era of rapid climate change require knowing how riverine thermal environments are evolving and the potential for detrimental biological impacts. Robust estimates of warming rates, however, are lacking due to limited long‐term temperature monitoring, so we compiled the best available multidecadal records and estimated trends at 391 sites in the 56,500‐km river network of the northwestern USA. Warming trends were prevalent during summer and early fall months in recent 20‐ and 40‐year periods (0.18–0.35°C per decade during 1996–2015 and 0.14–0.27°C per decade during 1976–2015), paralleled air temperature trends, and were mediated by discharge trends at regional and local levels. To illustrate the biological consequences of warming later in this century, trend estimates were used to inform selection of river temperature scenarios and assess changes in thermal exposure of adult Sockeye Salmon Oncorhynchus nerka migrating to four population areas as well as thermal habitat shifts for resident Brown Trout Salmo trutta and Rainbow Trout O. mykiss populations throughout the region. Future warming of 1–3°C would increase Sockeye Salmon exposure by 5–16% (3–143 degree‐days) and reduce thermally suitable riverine trout habitats by 8–31% while causing their upstream shift. Effects of those changes on population persistence and fisheries are likely to be context dependent, and strategic habitat restoration or adaptation strategies could ameliorate some biological impairments, but effectiveness will be tempered by the size of rivers, high costs, and pervasiveness of thermal effects. Most salmon and trout rivers will continue to provide suitable habitats for the foreseeable future, but it also appears inevitable that some river reaches will gradually become too warm to provide traditional habitats.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Adaptive Responsesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Warming of Salmon and Trout Rivers in the Northwestern U.S.: Road to Ruin or Path Through Purgatory?

et al. 2018

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“…Moreover, SSNs accommodate covariates to describe relationships with response variables and can be implemented with classical geostatistical kriging techniques (Cressie, ) to make predictions throughout river networks with spatially explicit uncertainty estimates (Isaak et al, ; Ver Hoef et al, ). Like other spatial statistical models (Beale et al, ; Temesgen & Ver Hoef, ; Ver Hoef, ), SSNs also consistently improve predictive performance relative to nonspatial models when applied to correlated data sets (Brennan et al, ; Filipe et al, ; Isaak et al, ; Turschwell et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 92%

The NorWeST Summer Stream Temperature Model and Scenarios for the Western U.S.: A Crowd‐Sourced Database and New Geospatial Tools Foster a User Community and Predict Broad Climate Warming of Rivers and Streams

Isaak

Wenger

Peterson

et al. 2017

Water Resources Research

225

347

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Thermal regimes are fundamental determinants of aquatic ecosystems, which makes description and prediction of temperatures critical during a period of rapid global change. The advent of inexpensive temperature sensors dramatically increased monitoring in recent decades, and although most monitoring is done by individuals for agency‐specific purposes, collectively these efforts constitute a massive distributed sensing array that generates an untapped wealth of data. Using the framework provided by the National Hydrography Dataset, we organized temperature records from dozens of agencies in the western U.S. to create the NorWeST database that hosts >220,000,000 temperature recordings from >22,700 stream and river sites. Spatial‐stream‐network models were fit to a subset of those data that described mean August water temperatures (AugTw) during 63,641 monitoring site‐years to develop accurate temperature models (r2 = 0.91; RMSPE = 1.10°C; MAPE = 0.72°C), assess covariate effects, and make predictions at 1 km intervals to create summer climate scenarios. AugTw averaged 14.2°C (SD = 4.0°C) during the baseline period of 1993–2011 in 343,000 km of western perennial streams but trend reconstructions also indicated warming had occurred at the rate of 0.17°C/decade (SD = 0.067°C/decade) during the 40 year period of 1976–2015. Future scenarios suggest continued warming, although variation will occur within and among river networks due to differences in local climate forcing and stream responsiveness. NorWeST scenarios and data are available online in user‐friendly digital formats and are widely used to coordinate monitoring efforts among agencies, for new research, and for conservation planning.

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“…In the context of the early stages of the invasion process, species distribution models (SDMs) can identify areas that provide suitable environmental conditions for the establishment of invasive crayfish. This approach has been used at scales ranging from local assessments (e.g., river basins) to national [34][35][36][37], transnational [38][39][40][41] or even worldwide [24,42]. Additionally, model projections can be produced under future scenarios of climate change, analysing possible shifts in areas suitable for the invaders or for the species that these can affect [38,40].…”

Section: Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Detection and Control of Invasive Freshwater Crayfish: From Traditional to Innovative Methods

et al. 2019

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Invasive alien species are widespread in freshwater systems compared to terrestrial ecosystems. Among crustaceans, crayfish in particular have been widely introduced and are considered a major threat to freshwater ecosystem functioning. New emerging techniques for detecting and controlling invasive crayfish and protecting endangered native species are; thus, now highly desirable and several are under evaluation. Important innovations have been developed in recent years for detection of both invasive and native crayfish, mainly through eDNA, which allows for the detection of the target species even at low abundance levels and when not directly observable. Forecasting models have also moved towards the creation of realistic invasion scenarios, allowing effective management plans to be developed in advance of invasions. The importance of monitoring the spread and impacts of crayfish and pathogens in developing national data and research networks is emphasised; here “citizen science” can also play a role. Emerging techniques are still being considered in the field of invasive crayfish control. Although for decades the main traditional techniques to manage invasive crayfish were solely based on trapping, since 2010 biological, biocidal, autocidal controls and sexual attractants, monosex populations, RNA interference, the sterile male release technique and oral delivery have all also been investigated for crayfish control. In this review, ongoing methodologies applied to the detection and management of invasive crayfish are discussed, highlighting their benefits and limitations.

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Geostatistical distribution modelling of two invasive crayfish across dendritic stream networks

Cited by 28 publications

References 44 publications

Global Warming of Salmon and Trout Rivers in the Northwestern U.S.: Road to Ruin or Path Through Purgatory?

Global Warming of Salmon and Trout Rivers in the Northwestern U.S.: Road to Ruin or Path Through Purgatory?

The NorWeST Summer Stream Temperature Model and Scenarios for the Western U.S.: A Crowd‐Sourced Database and New Geospatial Tools Foster a User Community and Predict Broad Climate Warming of Rivers and Streams

Detection and Control of Invasive Freshwater Crayfish: From Traditional to Innovative Methods

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