Germany’s dash for coal: Exploring drivers and factors

Pahle, Michael

doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2010.02.017

Cited by 64 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…By the mid-2000s, instead of focusing on renewables, the Big 4 were investing in new coal-and gas-fired power plants to meet expected demand growth. 21 Between 2005 and 2011, the share of renewables in total generation doubled from 10.0% to 20.1%, owing to generous feed-in tariffs, falling costs (especially for solar-PV), positive discourses and growing societal interest. 22 The very rapid diffusion of solar-PV after 2006 ( Figure 4) was unforeseen and driven by tariffs that far exceeded the cost of generation.…”

Section: Socio-technical Analysis Of the German Electricity Transitiomentioning

confidence: 99%

The Socio-Technical Dynamics of Low-Carbon Transitions

Geels

Sovacool

Schwanen

et al. 2017

Joule

445

198

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SummaryEffective mitigation of climate change will require far-reaching transformations of electricity, heat, agricultural, transport and other systems. The energy studies and modelling research that so often dominates academic and policy debates provide valuable insights into these transitions, but remain constrained by their focus on rational decision-making and their neglect of non-linear dynamics and broader social processes. This review paper describes insights from a complementary socio-technical approach that addresses the interdependent social, political, cultural, and technical processes of transitions. Focusing on the 'Multi-Level Perspective' (MLP), transitions are conceptualized as arising from the alignment of processes within and between three analytical levels: niche-innovations, socio-technical regimes and the socio-technical landscape. This analytical framework is illustrated with a case study of the German electricity transition and used to appraise lowcarbon transitions in several other sectors. We end by articulating four lessons for managing lowcarbon transitions.

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Section: Socio-technical Analysis Of the German Electricity Transitiomentioning

confidence: 99%

The Socio-Technical Dynamics of Low-Carbon Transitions

Geels

Sovacool

Schwanen

et al. 2017

Joule

445

198

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“…Even with nuclear power, participation in the European Emissions Trading Scheme and the uncontroversial nature of climate policies among the general public, in recent years Germany has seen a "dash for coal" in part due to the expectation of a nuclear phase-out (before Merkel's flip then flop). According to an analysis by Michael Pahle (2010) …”

Section: German Energy Policy Blows With the Windmentioning

confidence: 99%

Post-Normal Science in a German Landscape

Pielke¹

2012

Nature and Culture

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This essay explores the management and creation of ignorance via an exploration of the landscape of eastern Germany, which has seen profound social, political, and technological changes over the past several decades. Like in many places around the world decision makers in eastern Germany are seeking to reach a future state where seemingly conflicting outcomes related to the economy and the environment are simultaneously realized. The management of ignorance is an important but often overlooked consideration in decision making that the concept of "post-normal science" places into our focus of attention.

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“…According to a study by trend:research, new hard coal capacity was even estimated to be as expensive as 1500 €/kW by 2007 (Flauger, 2007). This disproportionate growth in costs may have decreased the relative attractiveness of hard coal, and a number of projects especially by smaller suppliers have indeed been cancelled due to this reason (see Pahle, 2010). The relevance Page 15 of this development is also analyzed in Section 4, where we quantify the effect of increased capital costs (+50% for hard coal, +25% for natural gas).…”

Section: Capital and Om Costsmentioning

confidence: 99%

How Emission Certificate Allocations Distort Fossil Investments: The German Example

Pahle

Fan²,

Schill

2011

SSRN Journal

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in AbstractDespite political activities to foster a low-carbon energy transition, Germany currently sees a considerable number of new coal power plants being added to its power mix. There are several possible drivers for this "dash for coal", but it is widely accepted that windfall profits gained through free allocation of ETS certificates play an important role. Yet the quantification of allocation-related investment distortions has been limited to back-of-the envelope calculations and stylized models so far. We close this gap with a numerical model integrating both Germany's particular allocation rules and its specific power generation structure. We find that technology specific new entrant provisions have substantially increased incentives to invest in hard coal plants compared to natural gas at the time of the ETS onset. More precisely, disproportionate windfall profits compensate more than half the total capital costs of a hard coal plant. Moreover, shorter periods of free allocations would not have turned investors' favours towards the cleaner natural gas technology because of pre-existing economic advantages for coal. In contrast, full auctioning of permits or a single best available technology benchmark would have made natural gas the predominant technology of choice. 1 We would like to thank Jochen Diekmann and two anonymous referees for their insightful comments.

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Germany’s dash for coal: Exploring drivers and factors

Cited by 64 publications

References 21 publications

The Socio-Technical Dynamics of Low-Carbon Transitions

The Socio-Technical Dynamics of Low-Carbon Transitions

Post-Normal Science in a German Landscape

How Emission Certificate Allocations Distort Fossil Investments: The German Example

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