Getting Rich after Getting Old: China’s demographic and economic transition in dynamic international context

Understanding Demographic Challenges of Transition Through the China Lens

“… Sources: Johnston et al ( 2016 ), Johnston ( 2018 ) a The World Bank considers a nation with a per capita income exceeding US$12,055 (2017, Atlas method) as a high per capita income country (World Bank 2018 ) b In demography, when a nation’s population share of people aged 65 rises above 7%, it is considered to have entered a population ageing phase …”

“…Concurrently, retirement promises made to the larger and older cohort in their prime earning years have consistently been modest. This ensures that these retirement costs do not become unsustainable and thus will not stall China’s modernisation agenda in the case of an early onset of population ageing in terms of national development Thanks to its long-run EDT strategy, China is arguably at least comparatively well-positioned to continue its development (see Johnston et al 2016 ; Johnston 2019a , b ). In recent years, more information has emerged on China’s strategy for moving from the “poor-old” to the “rich-old” quadrant of the EDM.…”

“…Transition economies, understood as those moving from a centrally planned to a market-based economy, are no exception, and the majority of them now classify as “ageing” (see Table 26.3 ). 1 On average, however, compared with established market economies, population ageing in transition economies has taken place at low per capita incomes (see Johnston et al 2016 ). Despite that potential additional development hurdle, among transition economies only in the Chinese case has there been a consistent and sustained level of policy attention paid to the potential ramifications for economic development of being “first old, not rich” (see Johnston 2019a ).…”

China’s Economic Demography Transition Strategy: A Population-Weighted Approach to the Economy and Policy

“…These countries typically encounter challenges in resource-rent management and distribution. With the exception of Equatorial Guinea, most such countries are in the Middle East and South-east Asia, not Africa (see also Johnston, Liu, Yang and Zhang, 2016). See Table 2 for empirical definitions of each society (demographic) type.…”

The Belt and Road Initiative: What is in it for China?

“…There is meantime a parallel economic demography logic underpinning the choice of BRI launch in Kazakhstan and Indonesia. Figure displays countries categorised into the four economic‐demography typologies of the Economic Demography Matrix: “poor and young,” “poor and old,” “rich and young,” and “rich and old,” following standard definitions of population ageing and high per capita incomes (see Johnston, ; Johnston, Liu, Yang, & Zhang, ). The figure draws attention to the concentration of “poor” (low‐ and middle‐income countries) and demographically “young” economies—those with the greatest unrealised development potential—in Central and South Asia and Africa—regions of early BRI focus (see Chen & Yip, ; Johnston, ).…”