GIS based quantification and mapping of climate change vulnerability hotspots in Addis Ababa

Abstract

Background: Unlike the studies undertaken on agricultural and hydrological sectors, focused climate change vulnerability researches in urban centers in Ethiopia is not widely available and of recent history. However, as many signals of climate change vulnerability started to happen in urban centers as well, it is inevitable to analyze, quantify, map, prioritize and be prepared for adaptation measures. This study is therefore, tried to assess, quantify and map climate change vulnerability in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, by integrating two climate change vulnerability assessment models, namely, the Sullivan and Meigh's Model of composite climate change vulnerability index and the IPCC's approach of vulnerability assessment which comprises exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Fifteen subcomponents of vulnerability indicators were identified in ten sub-cities (Addis Ketema, Arada, Akaki-Kality, Bole, Gulelle, Kirkos, Kolfe-Keraniyo, Lideta, Nifasilk-Lafto and Yeka) of Addis Ababa. Due to the scale, degree, amount and unit of measurement for the selected indicators varied, their values were normalized to a number which ranges between 0 and 1, indicating as the values increased to 1, vulnerability to climate change increases. The study uses Iyengar and Sudarshan's unequal weighting system, to assign a weight to all indicators. The results were mapped using ArcGIS 10.2 package. Results: The results indicated that the ten sub-cities in Addis Ababa were found in different levels of vulnerability to climate change. The exposure and sensitivity were highest for Addis Ketema, Arada, and Lideta which are found in central parts of the city, with a normalization index value greater than 0.5. The adaptive capacity index is the highest in Gulelle, Bole, and Arada sub-cities. These sub-cities have better quality houses, well-planned districts, good infrastructural facilities and good coverage of green areas compared to others. The overall climate change vulnerability was the highest (normalized index > 0.5) in Arada, Addis Ketema and Lideta, due to the adaptation capacity is the lowest compared to other sub-cities. Conclusion: Addis Ababa is vulnerable to climate change impacts and the degree of vulnerability is underpinned by the interaction of multiple factors mainly adaptive capacities of sub-cities, location based characteristics and changes in climatic parameters. These present a need to strengthen mitigation and adaptation activities and prioritize sub cities for intervention based on the degree of vulnerability. It is also understood that the Sullivan and Meigh's Model and IPCC's approach for climate change analyses, could be used simultaneously for preparing vulnerability index per different geographical locations.

Rural households’ livelihood vulnerability to climate variability and extremes: a livelihood zone-based approach in the Northeastern Highlands of Ethiopia

“…Füssel (2007) and Füssel and Klein (2006) argued that the IPCC (2001) definition accommodates the integrated approach to vulnerability analysis-which conceptualizes vulnerability to climate change as a function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The vulnerability mapping approaches of O'Brien et al (2006), Feyissa et al (2018), and Shawn et al (2016 combine the biophysical and socioeconomic components as a function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity to assess the level of vulnerability causations. The integrated vulnerability assessment approach includes the interactions among the components of vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity) for the coupled human-environment systems (Turner et al 2003).…”

“…CVI is a holistic, flexible, and interdisciplinary approach which integrates the physical, social, economic, and environmental issues. This study followed the three components of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity that integrated into the IPCC's definition of vulnerability as used in Sullivan and Meigh (2005), Byambaa (2013), andFeyissa et al (2018). The computation of the composite index of CVI is shown in Eq.…”

“…Weighting of indicators in this study uses an unequal method of Iyengar and Sudarshan (1982). This method is statistically sound and well suited for the development of a composite index of vulnerability to climate change as employed by Feyissa et al (2018). The choice of the weights in this manner would also ensure that large variations in any one of the indicators would not excessively dominate the contribution of the rest of the indicators and distort inter regional comparisons (Iyengar and Sudarshan 1982).…”

“…The impact of climate variability and extreme events on livelihood vulnerability are not the only variable by themselves rather influenced by a range of biophysical and socioeconomic factors (Feyissa et al 2018;Deressa 2010). This implies that a system is vulnerable if it is exposed and sensitive to the effects of climate variability and extreme events, and simultaneously with limited adaptive capacity (Fellmann 2012).…”

“…The manifestation and impact of vulnerability components (exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity) vary locally, so do the preferences and strategies (Piya et al 2012). Investigation of vulnerability can be studied at the local scale since most of the vulnerability components (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity) are local events to a specific society and physical setting (Doll 2009;Feyissa et al 2018).…”