Glacial lake outburst floods threaten Asia’s infrastructure

Nie, Yong; Deng, Qian; Pritchard, Hamish D.; Carrivick, Jonathan L.; Ahmed, Farooq; Huggel, Christian; Liu, Lijun; Wen, Wu; Lesi, Muchu; Wang, Jida; Zhang, Huayu; Zhang, Bo; Lü, Q. W.; Zhang, Yili

doi:10.1016/j.scib.2023.05.035

Cited by 11 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 15 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…In the Rongxer watershed, end-moraine-dammed lakes in contact with glaciers have expanded by 3.06 km 2 over the past 30 years and will continue to expand. This ongoing expansion poses an increased GLOF risk [37] and increases threats to people and infrastructure [63]. Therefore, there is an urgent need for monitoring of glacial lakes and risk dynamics studies.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Glacial Lake Changes and Risk Assessment in Rongxer Watershed of China–Nepal Economic Corridor

Zhang,

Nie,

Zhang

2024

Remote Sensing

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are one of the most severe disasters in alpine regions, releasing a large amount of water and sediment that can cause fatalities and economic loss as well as substantial damage to downstream infrastructures. The risk of GLOFs in the Himalayas is exacerbated by glacier retreat caused by global warming. Critical economic corridors, such as the Rongxer Watershed, are threatened by GLOFs, but the lack of risk assessment specific to the watershed hinders hazard prevention. In this study, we propose a novel model to evaluate the risk of GLOF using a combination of remote sensing observations, GIS, and hydrological models and apply this model to the GLOF risk assessment in the Rongxer Watershed. The results show that (1) the area of glacial lakes in the Rongxer Watershed increased by 31.19% from 11.35 km2 in 1990 to 14.89 km2 in 2020, and (2) 18 lakes were identified as potentially dangerous glacial lakes (PDGLs) that need to be assessed for the GLOF risk, and two of them were categorized as very high risk (Niangzongmajue and Tsho Rolpa). The proposed model was robust in a GLOF risk evaluation by historical GLOFs in the Himalayas. The glacial lake data and GLOF risk assessment model of this study have the potential to be widely used in research on the relationships between glacial lakes and climate change, as well as in disaster mitigation of GLOFs.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Glacial Lake Changes and Risk Assessment in Rongxer Watershed of China–Nepal Economic Corridor

Zhang,

Nie,

Zhang

2024

Remote Sensing

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Moreover, GLOFs originating from ice-dammed lakes exhibit significant regional clustering and periodic drainage patterns in the Third Pole 58 , 59 . By directing our attention to specific basins or ice-dammed lakes with well-defined issues, such as the Kaygar, Shishper, and Merzbacher lakes 60 – 62 , we can effectively address their hazard and risk responses. Therefore, large-scale assessments of ice-dammed lakes appear to offer comparatively limited utility when compared with the more prevalent disasters and widely distributed hazard sources associated with the moraine-dammed lakes in the Third Pole.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Enhanced glacial lake activity threatens numerous communities and infrastructure in the Third Pole

Zhang,

Wang,

et al. 2023

Nat Commun

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are among the most severe cryospheric hazards in the Third Pole, encompassing the Tibetan Plateau and surrounding Himalayas, Hindu Kush, and Tianshan Mountains. Recent studies on glacial lake changes and GLOF characteristics and risks in this region have shown scattered and insufficiently detailed features. Here, we conduct an appraisal of the GLOF risks by combining high-resolution satellite images, case-by-case high-precision GLOF modeling, and detailed downstream exposure data. The glacial lake changes from 2018 to 2022 in the region were primarily driven by the accelerated expansion of proglacial lakes. The GLOF frequency has exhibited a significant increasing trend since 1980, with intensified activity in Southeastern Tibet and the China-Nepal border area over the past decade. Approximately 6,353 km2 of land could be at risk from potential GLOFs, posing threats to 55,808 buildings, 105 hydropower projects, 194 km2 of farmland, 5,005 km of roads, and 4,038 bridges. This study directly responds to the need for local disaster prevention and mitigation strategies, highlighting the urgent requirement of reducing GLOF threats in the Third Pole and the importance of regional cooperation.

show abstract

“…However, the geomorphological conditions along the Sichuan-Tibet Railway are complex and diverse, as it must cross a network of high mountains, valleys and numerous rivers on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau, where the railway is still under construction. Earthquakes, landslides, glacier collapse and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are common in this region, making it a sensitive area for geological and glacial hazards (Cui and others, 2022;Zhao and others, 2022a;Kääb and Girod, 2023;Nie and others, 2023). Some previous studies have been conducted on geological hazards and emergency prevention along the railway (Cui and others, 2021;Kang and others, 2021;Zhang and others, 2022a), mainly focusing on landslides (Guo and others, 2021;Zhao and others, 2023), debris flows (Hu and others, 2019;Sun and others, 2023) and in situ geostress (Ren and others, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential threats of glacial lake changes to the Sichuan-Tibet Railway

Peng,

Zhang,

et al. 2024

J. Glaciol.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The Sichuan-Tibet Railway, China's second inland railway to Tibet, is currently being constructed and will run between Chengdu and Lhasa. It will cross the southeastern Tibetan Plateau and be surrounded by glacial lakes, some of which may pose a threat of glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) events. Both the specific location and the outburst susceptibility of these glacial lakes are largely unknown. In this study, we mapped the glacial lakes using declassified Corona KH-4 and Hexagon KH-9 from the 1960s and Sentinel-2 imagery from 2020 and assessed their spatio-temporal changes. GLOF-susceptibility criteria were established based on historical GLOF events. The results show that the total area (number) of glacial lakes has increased by 22% (20%) from 126.1 ± 2.4 km2 (1662 lakes) in the 1960s to 153.6 ± 11.1 km2 (1994 lakes) in 2020. Of these lakes, this study identified 38 very high and 85 high GLOF-susceptibility lakes; mainly distributed along the Bomi-Nyingchi railway section in the Parlung Zangbo River basin. Four of the very high GLOF-susceptibility glacial lakes may pose a threat to the railway and will require monitoring. The insights from this study can be used to mitigate the risk of GLOFs during the construction and maintenance of the Sichuan-Tibet Railway.

show abstract

Glacial lake outburst floods threaten Asia’s infrastructure

Cited by 11 publications

References 15 publications

Glacial Lake Changes and Risk Assessment in Rongxer Watershed of China–Nepal Economic Corridor

Glacial Lake Changes and Risk Assessment in Rongxer Watershed of China–Nepal Economic Corridor

Enhanced glacial lake activity threatens numerous communities and infrastructure in the Third Pole

Potential threats of glacial lake changes to the Sichuan-Tibet Railway

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About