Glacier systems and seasonal snow cover in six major Asian river basins: water storage properties under changing climate

Savoskul, Oxana S.; Smakhtin, V.

doi:10.5337/2013.203

Cited by 14 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 103 publications

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“…Only 8 glaciers (0.5%) are larger than 10 km 2 , but they contribute to 15.3% of the basins' ice cover. It is a common pattern in all glacier systems, suggesting that glacier systems in all the study basins are structured in a similar way, which is that small glaciers dominate in numbers, but, in total, their share in the entire glacier-covered area is small and they contain a tiny fraction of the basin's ice reserves (Savoskul and Smakhtin, 2013). The altitude of glacier ranges from 2880 to 4860 m a.s.l.…”

Section: Land Cover and Glaciermentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of projected climate change on the glacier and runoff generation in the Naryn River Basin, Central Asia

Gan

Luo

Zuo

et al. 2015

Journal of Hydrology

107

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Keywords:SWAT model Latest ensemble of climate models Climate change Glacier Hydrology s u m m a r y Climate change is a major environmental concern and the melting processes of the glaciers and snowpacks are sensitive to climate change. The ultimate effect of the future changes on the glacier and hydrology is unclear and poorly investigated for Central Asia. Here, we use results from the latest ensemble of climate models in combination with a glacier-enhanced Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic model to assess the hydrological impact of climate change in the Naryn River Basin, Central Asia. Results indicate that small glaciers suffer from larger relative area losses than large glaciers. Only 8% of the originally glaciated area for small glaciers will retain glaciers by 2100 for RCP8.5. The rate of area retreat for small glaciers (with an area <1 km 2 ) will slow down for the period 2066-2095, while the glacier area shrinkage is projected to accelerate for large glaciers throughout the twenty-first century. In all cases, glaciers will recede but net glacier melt runoff will reach peak in about 2040. Decreases in future runoff are projected in combination with a negative change in precipitation, snowmelt and higher evapotranspiration. Glacier melt is mainly derived by future temperature changes, while the runoff and snowmelt component are determined by future precipitation. The timing of peak runoff is advancing about one month as a result of earlier snowmelt due to the warming temperature. Runoff is projected to increase during the spring and decrease for the summer season for the future periods. Thus water availability on the time will likely undergo significant changes.

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Section: Land Cover and Glaciermentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of projected climate change on the glacier and runoff generation in the Naryn River Basin, Central Asia

Gan

Luo

Zuo

et al. 2015

Journal of Hydrology

107

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“…Therefore, glacier runoff evaluation mainly relies on modeling approaches, particularly in large basins. The larger the basin, the more challenging it is to model the glacial runoff, because the diversity of glaciers and variability of micro-climatic conditions increases with increase in the catchment size (Hock et al 2005;Savoskul and Smakhtin 2013).…”

Section: Methods Of Meltwater Assessments: a Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Seasonal snow extends over significantly larger areas compared to glaciers, since it may form at much lower elevations. The intraannual storage capacity of seasonal snow as a rule exceeds that of glaciers (Savoskul and Smakhtin 2013). The seasonality of snowmelt differs from that of glaciers in two important aspects: duration and timing.…”

Section: Terminology and Basic Conceptsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…and mass-balance per catchment, validated using the data on glacier areal reduction rates between 1961-1990 and 2001-2010 (Table 4) and regional assessments of the mass-balance rates compiled from all available mass-balance monitoring records (Savoskul and Smakhtin 2013). The MAF values (Table 1) adopted for the calculation of meltwater component contribution to flow are represented by estimates of natural flow, i.e., a total river flow that would be expected in the absence of withdrawals and diversions.…”

Section: Glacier Runoff and Seasonal Snowmelt In 1961-1990 And 2001-2010mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Glacier systems and seasonal snow cover in six major Asian river basins: hydrological role under changing climate

Savoskul¹,

Smakhtin²

2013

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The publications in this series cover a wide range of subjects-from computer modeling to experience with water user associations-and vary in content from directly applicable research to more basic studies, on which applied work ultimately depends. Some research reports are narrowly focused, analytical and detailed empirical studies; others are wide-ranging and synthetic overviews of generic problems.Although most of the reports are published by IWMI staff and their collaborators, we welcome contributions from others. Each report is reviewed internally by IWMI staff, and by external reviewers. The reports are published and distributed both in hard copy and electronically (www.iwmi.org) and where possible all data and analyses will be available as separate downloadable files. Reports may be copied freely and cited with due acknowledgment. About IWMIIWMI's mission is to improve the management of land and water resources for food, livelihoods and the environment. In serving this mission, IWMI concentrates on the integration of policies, technologies and management systems to achieve workable solutions to real problems-practical, relevant results in the field of irrigation and water and land resources.

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“…1 Glacier, etc.) have long-term variation measurements (Savoskul and Smakhtin, 2013). CAWa (Central Asian Water; www.cawa-project.net/) are intended to contribute to a reliable regional data basis of central Asia from the monitoring stations, sampling and remote sensing.…”

Section: Paucity Of Glacier Variation Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Review article: Hydrological modeling in glacierized catchments of central Asia – status and challenges

Chen

Fang

et al. 2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Meltwater from glacierized catchments is one of the most important water supplies in central Asia. Therefore, the effects of climate change on glaciers and snow cover will have increasingly significant consequences for runoff. Hydrological modeling has become an indispensable research approach to water resources management in large glacierized river basins, but there is a lack of focus in the modeling of glacial discharge. This paper reviews the status of hydrological modeling in glacierized catchments of central Asia, discussing the limitations of the available models and extrapolating these to future challenges and directions. After reviewing recent efforts, we conclude that the main sources of uncertainty in assessing the regional hydrological impacts of climate change are the unreliable and incomplete data sets and the lack of understanding of the hydrological regimes of glacierized catchments of central Asia. Runoff trends indicate a complex response to changes in climate. For future variation of water resources, it is essential to quantify the responses of hydrologic processes to both climate change and shrinking glaciers in glacierized catchments, and scientific focus should be on reducing uncertainties linked to these processes.

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Glacier systems and seasonal snow cover in six major Asian river basins: water storage properties under changing climate

Cited by 14 publications

References 103 publications

Effects of projected climate change on the glacier and runoff generation in the Naryn River Basin, Central Asia

Effects of projected climate change on the glacier and runoff generation in the Naryn River Basin, Central Asia

Glacier systems and seasonal snow cover in six major Asian river basins: hydrological role under changing climate

Review article: Hydrological modeling in glacierized catchments of central Asia – status and challenges

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