Global 3D rocket launch and re-entry air pollutant and CO2 emissions at the onset of the megaconstellation era

Abstract

Satellite megaconstellation (SMC) missions are spurring rapid growth in rocket launches and anthropogenic re-entries. These events inject pollutants and carbon dioxide (CO2) in all atmospheric layers, affecting climate and stratospheric ozone. Quantification of these and other environmental impacts requires reliable inventories of emissions. We present a global, hourly, 3D, multi-year inventory of air pollutant emissions and CO2 from rocket launches and object re-entries spanning the inception and growth of SMCs (2020–2022). We use multiple reliable sources to compile information needed to build the inventory and conduct rigorous and innovative cross-checks and validations against launch livestreams and past studies. Our inventory accounts for rocket plume afterburning effects, applies object-specific ablation profiles to re-entering objects, and quantifies unablated mass of objects returning to Earth. We also identify all launches and objects associated with SMC missions, accounting for 37–41% of emissions of black carbon particles, carbon monoxide, and CO2 by 2022. The data are provided in formats for ease-of-use in atmospheric chemistry and climate models to inform regulation and space sustainability policies.